Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?
11
64
1k
2099
54%
chance

Title too long, didn't fit: [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Resolves to YES if it is the expert consensus in 2100 that, on net, "more" AI suffering happened in a rolling year before 2040 than, on net, farmed animal suffering happened in 2022; NO if it is consensus that there had been no such year. "More" and "on net" (which assumes a well-defined arithmetic over suffering) are placeholders for future operationalizations of these notions corresponding to the accepted framework of sentience and suffering in 2100; if no such operationalizations which are judged to be in the spirit of this market exist by then, this market resolves to N/A.

If there is no expert consensus by 2100, then this market resolves to N/A.


If it turns out that farmed animals are incapable of suffering (have no qualia or equivalent), then this market
1) Resolves to YES if there is any rolling year before 2040 in which AI systems have on net suffered.

2) Resolves to NO if they were capable of suffering but did not on net suffer in any rolling year.

3) Resolves to N/A if no AI system before 2040 turns out to be capable of suffering either.

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