Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be open-sourced?
23
Ṁ100Ṁ2.6kJan 21
96%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"next reasoning model", i.e. a jump analogous in scale to o1 --> o3
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
the r1 -> r1-new jump was somewhat analogous in scale to o1-o3, arguably lesser scale. But r1-v3.1-thinking is more clearly analogous and all these models are open source, so afaict the market resolves YES @christine
People are also trading
Related questions
Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?
1% chance
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026?
21% chance
Will DeepSeek be banned in US before 2027?
13% chance
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
6% chance
Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
10% chance