In December 2023, NASA made statements that SpaceX would demonstrate an internal propellant transfer (transferring propellant between two internal tanks) in their next Starship–SuperHeavy flight:
This would be a demonstration of the kind of propellant transfer that would need to take place in orbit between vehicles as part of Starship's role in the upcoming Artemis missions to the moon.
Will Starship–SuperHeavy successfully perform such a demonstration during the third Integrated Flight Test?
Resolves YES on statements from SpaceX saying that this propellant transfer was attempted and was successful.
Resolves NO if a propellant transfer demonstration is described by SpaceX as unsuccessful, or if IFT-3 comes to an end (successfully or otherwise, including vehicle destruction on the pad) without a propellant transfer taking place.
Note specifically that if SpaceX launches the flight with no plans to do such a demonstration, this market still resolves NO, not N/A.
If the third flight isn't called "IFT-3", that's fine, this question is about the third Starship–SuperHeavy orbital or near-orbital flight, and will not resolve until a third flight has completed or the vehicle for a third flight attempt has been destroyed in an attempt (including blowing up on the pad as part of a launch attempt).
1,000
3.00https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/esdmd/artemis-campaign-development-division/human-landing-system-program/nasa-artemis-mission-progresses-with-spacex-starship-test-flight/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=NASA_Marshall&utm_campaign=NASASocial&linkId=364006005
Not much new really:
"The propellant transfer demonstration operations were completed, and the NASA-SpaceX team is currently reviewing the flight data that was received."
This suggest "operations completed". It isn't clear to me whether "reviewing the flight data" is about the amount transferred or given the "flight" perhaps that is about what they can learn about settling fuels for efficient transfer pr something else.
@Mqrius Yeah, though later they say "we at least sent the commands, now we'll have to look at the data". Sometimes a bit conflicting what we get on stream.
I swear these markets make me look like a SpaceX hater but I’m not! IFT 1+2 both fell way short of their stated goals even if they were successful. Between this market and the February launch market being at 50% I don’t understand the rationale.
Do we really expect Starship to go from not even orbital to in orbit propellant transfer in 3 months with a 30% chance?
@NGK I get where you're coming from, but IFT-2 was very close to making it to its target trajectory, I think the likelihood of the next one making it is quite high. And I guess an internal propellant transfer doesn't sound that hard, provided they make it to their target trajectory. But that's my gut, certainly could be wrong.
@NGK as for the February date, I'm in two minds. SpaceX has an internal NET of Feb 12th, last I heard. Regulatory approval is simpler than last time, but we don't know when it will come. There are mutterings that it's expected in February.
Whilst that can't be banked on, I expect uncertainty in estimates about regulatory approval to be less than in the previous two launches, as it's no longer their first launch, they no longer need an environmental assessment, and the mishap investigation is likely more straightforward given that less went wrong in IFT-2 (and it went wrong more safely).
Normally betting on delays is a good bet, but things will become smoother the more launches they do, the number of possible sources of delays has already reduced and will continue to, until they start doing something different like using a different launch site or whatnot.
I had been leaning mostly toward March, but I am not confident enough to bet Feb below 50%.
My rationale is that so far SpaceX has generally pushed for some goal, fallen well short of it, but learned a lot along the way so that the next time they get it. So since this is the first time this has been announced, I think they aren't going to make it happen.
But I'll be excited to be wrong!
Unresolved. Musk made statements in a recent talk suggesting a possible demonstration in the next flight. This contradicts the statements from the other day, so we'd better see what actually happens.
Some comments from Musk transcribed by @Mqrius here:
https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-starship-ift3-try-for-full-orb#89zzNsCOXEs4GKBrvztL
@chrisjbillington Sounds like the statements earlier may have been misinterpreted by SpaceflightNow, thanks @Mqrius for pointing this out.