Will Starship–Super Heavy deliver a payload to orbit in 2024?
➕
Plus
51
Ṁ7407
Dec 31
3%
chance

Resolves YES if Starship–Super Heavy delivers any payload to Earth orbit in 2024.

The payload can be anything at all, even a test mass, as long as it is described by SpaceX as a payload. This therefore excludes incidental space junk falling off of Starship, or anything like that (and excludes Starship itself).

Deployment of a payload must be confirmed by SpaceX before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES

A similar market with more fine-grained date prediction:

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-wit

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules