Will Starship–Super Heavy deliver a payload to orbit in 2024?
40
216
Ṁ3.2KṀ770
Dec 31
86%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Starship–Super Heavy delivers any payload to Earth orbit in 2024.
The payload can be anything at all, even a test mass, as long as it is described by SpaceX as a payload. This therefore excludes incidental space junk falling off of Starship, or anything like that (and excludes Starship itself).
Deployment of a payload must be confirmed by SpaceX before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
A similar market with more fine-grained date prediction:
Related questions
First Starship–Superheavy commercial payload in 2024?
12% chance
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
8% chance
[ACX 2024] Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
91% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
72% chance
Will two Starships dock together in orbit before 2027?
85% chance
Will a SpaceX starship achieve orbit in 2024?
86% chance
Will Starship reach escape velocity before 2026?
11% chance
Will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?
6% chance
Will SpaceX launch a Starship–SuperHeavy from Kennedy Space Center, Florida, in 2024?
3% chance
Will SpaceX deploy any Starlink satellites using Starship in 2024?
80% chance