Will Starship–Super Heavy deliver a payload to orbit in 2024?
40
216
770
Dec 31
86%
chance

Resolves YES if Starship–Super Heavy delivers any payload to Earth orbit in 2024.

The payload can be anything at all, even a test mass, as long as it is described by SpaceX as a payload. This therefore excludes incidental space junk falling off of Starship, or anything like that (and excludes Starship itself).

Deployment of a payload must be confirmed by SpaceX before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.

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A similar market with more fine-grained date prediction:

/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-wit