Will Starship–Super Heavy deliver a payload to orbit in 2024?
Plus
51
Ṁ7407Dec 31
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Starship–Super Heavy delivers any payload to Earth orbit in 2024.
The payload can be anything at all, even a test mass, as long as it is described by SpaceX as a payload. This therefore excludes incidental space junk falling off of Starship, or anything like that (and excludes Starship itself).
Deployment of a payload must be confirmed by SpaceX before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
A similar market with more fine-grained date prediction:
Related questions
Related questions
Which months of 2024 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
Will there be X or more Starship–SuperHeavy launches in 2024?
Will Starship launch in November 2024
37% chance
Will Starship launch in December 2024
48% chance
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Which months of 2025 will there be a Starship–Superheavy launch?
First Starship–Superheavy commercial payload in 2024?
4% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 7 times before the end of 2025?
60% chance
Will Starship launch to orbit at least 8 times before the end of 2025?
70% chance
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
3% chance