
Will Starship go to the Moon before 2026?
74
1kṀ14k2026
1%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Starship does any of the following:
Lands on the Moon
Crashes into the Moon
Enters Lunar orbit
Enters a halo orbit associated with the L1 or L2 Earth–Moon Lagrange points.
The landing/crashing or orbital insertion must take place prior to 2026, local time at the launch site from which the flight launched.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the following will not be sufficient for a YES resolution:
Lunar gravity assists
Free return trajectories
To resolve YES, the spacecraft must slow down enough to "stick around" the Moon by fulfilling one of the conditions originally listed in the description (orbiting, landing, or crashing).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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