Will Starship go to the Moon before 2027?

Question

Resolves YES if Starship does any of the following:

Lands on the Moon

Crashes into the Moon

Enters Lunar orbit

Enters a halo orbit associated with the L1 or L2 Earth–Moon Lagrange points.

The landing/crashing or orbital insertion must take place prior to 2027, local time at the launch site from which the flight launched.

The following will not be sufficient for a YES resolution:

Lunar gravity assists

Free return trajectories

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (28 traders, as of May 5, 2026).