Metaculus has a mechanism for closing questions retroactively, such that predictions made after a certain point in time don't count. Presumably the purpose of this is to ensure participants are rewarded only for actual predictions, and not for "predictions" made after the outcome of an event became known, but before market closure.
Will Manifold introduce a similar mechanism this year? Anything that allows ordinary market creators to retroactively close a market, such that bets made after a certain date are treated similar to an N/A resolution, or anything substantially similar to that would count.
Functionality used only by admins in special circumstances does not count, but functionality used by admins as part of an understood normal functioning of Manifold does count. Basically it's a YES if one could create a market and realistically expect retroactive closure to apply, regardless of who actually performs it.
I won't bet on this market in case resolution requires a judgement call.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ61 | |
| 2 | Ṁ36 | |
| 3 | Ṁ30 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
In my view, prediction markets should reward adding information and anything else is a distortion. I wouldn't want to see a market that is guaranteed to resolve true sitting at <95% because traders know their bets won't matter. League profits are a different matter, and I think retroactively making trades after a given point non-predictive makes a lot more sense.
See also the concerns raised here: https://manifold.markets/TravisLuckenbaugh/will-manifold-fix-betting-before-th#7RgLcD9d7w7HUf7wzekM