Will manifold introduce a mechanism for retroactive market closure in 2024?
66
1kṀ14k
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

Metaculus has a mechanism for closing questions retroactively, such that predictions made after a certain point in time don't count. Presumably the purpose of this is to ensure participants are rewarded only for actual predictions, and not for "predictions" made after the outcome of an event became known, but before market closure.

Will Manifold introduce a similar mechanism this year? Anything that allows ordinary market creators to retroactively close a market, such that bets made after a certain date are treated similar to an N/A resolution, or anything substantially similar to that would count.

Functionality used only by admins in special circumstances does not count, but functionality used by admins as part of an understood normal functioning of Manifold does count. Basically it's a YES if one could create a market and realistically expect retroactive closure to apply, regardless of who actually performs it.

Relevant timezone for "2024" is US Pacific Time.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,320
2Ṁ262
3Ṁ105
4Ṁ89
5Ṁ76
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy