Metaculus has a mechanism for closing questions retroactively, such that predictions made after a certain point in time don't count. Presumably the purpose of this is to ensure participants are rewarded only for actual predictions, and not for "predictions" made after the outcome of an event became known, but before market closure.
Will Manifold introduce a similar mechanism this year? Anything that allows ordinary market creators to retroactively close a market, such that bets made after a certain date are treated similar to an N/A resolution, or anything substantially similar to that would count.
Functionality used only by admins in special circumstances does not count, but functionality used by admins as part of an understood normal functioning of Manifold does count. Basically it's a YES if one could create a market and realistically expect retroactive closure to apply, regardless of who actually performs it.
Relevant timezone for "2024" is US Pacific Time.
It'd also be nice to retroactiely close and then reopen markets. This would let you undo creator clariications that were against the guidelines and similar.
Thank you for making this, but once again I have no idea how to bet.
How bad I want it: 99.9%
Do I think Manifold creators deserve this ability? 100%
Will they actually do it? No idea, they're already making a dating site and a politics site, I can't say what they will do.
Am I well-informed? I think I have a pretty good idea about what Manifold has been up to in the last few months.
Ian upthumbed the original suggestion thread, which is at least worth something.
Technically, I don't think this is particularly daunting. From my understanding, it will "just work".
I think it's over the current 28% I guess.