During an exchange with @FubbiQuantz, I posted the following:

Intelligent bets are overrun by people dumping mana on positions in between when information is announced and market is resolved.

The standard for a prediction bet is a window where betting is allowed to increase fairness between early betters and late betters. Manifold ignores this standard because having more markets "open" makes the site look bigger than it is.

Manifold marks markets they don't like as non-predictive excluding them from leagues. However, they are happy to leave markets like this in the competition pool:

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-manifold-reach-10400-monthly-a

Will Manifold Reach 10400 Monthly Active Users in 2023?

99.2% chance. Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats Resolves "YES" if Manifold reaches 10400 monthly active users at any point in 2023 Resolves "NO" otherwise Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public [link preview]

That market has a 10,000 M bet after the market should have resolved YES. This distorts the systems purpose and ruins competition for non-whales. The problem could have been avoided with a close date.

This market resolves YES if two things happen:

• Prior to Dec 31, 2024, close date becomes mandatory on "Predictive" markets.

• This is communicated in the UI for opening new questions.

This market resolves N/A immediately if Manifold rules it "non-predictive".

To prevent sniping, betting will close Nov 1, 2024.