Will Manifold have a day below 1200 engaged users by end of September?
143
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
YES

Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Addendum Sep 13th:

Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's

community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular

collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are

fine.

In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to

correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ5,391 of YES

1167, resolves YES.

1 reply
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

Would have been 1181 if not for the changes implemented today.

PC avatar
PhilCbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

I wonder if people will pay me more for intel in the future 😉

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGpredicted NO

so is no on autolose cuz of sept 21?

1 reply
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@higherLEVELING No - resolution won't recognise retroactively-changed numbers. But numbers published from now on, using Manifold's new calculation, do count.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

A good point I think by @Willi is that even if you accept that the algorithm changing is just bad luck, using retroactively-changed numbers is a bit on the nose.

GDP markets that don't specify they factor in revisions would probably be assumed not to, and I think this is a fair default.

I plan to reopen the markets at 05:30 UTC ( a little over half an hour from the time of comment) and have them resolve based on the new numbers henceforth, but disregarding retroactive changes to numbers published for previous days.

I don't think there is a good way to randomise reopening in a way that doesn't just give me an advantage trading (or having to commit to not trading for some arbitrary period of time, also not ideal) so have opted for a public fixed time.

10 replies
Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO

@chrisjbillington Would be nice if we could edit limit orders while closed! That’s the main issue I see

PC avatar
PhilCpredicted YES

@Gen Wait so are you resolving this YES?

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@Gen Ah :(. Any ideas?

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO

@chrisjbillington Not really. Just gotta go fast

We’re lucky you closed the markets at all, at least that gives a bit of prep time

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@PC I'm reopening and will resolve YES if future numbers are below 1200, or NO at the end of the month.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@Gen managram me your balance so the limit orders bounce. I'll send it back I promise.

Anyone else wanna managram your balance to me or someone you trust, pinky swear you get it back as soon as you cancel your limit orders or they get cancelled.

PC avatar
PhilCpredicted YES
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@chrisjbillington or create an unlisted market, dump your balance it in, then resolve NA

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO

@chrisjbillington As far as I can tell, I’ve successfully closed my limit orders

(Unless the UI is lying to me)

On mobile, go to closed markets, tap to see limits, tap cancel

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicted NO

@chrisjbillington understood. I'm not stoked, but I also somewhat agree with the conclusion and am mostly frustrated at how the situation blindsided (all of) us. it means a lot that you took time to lock things down and reassess openly

DavePanfilo avatar
Dave Panfilo

Everyone who traded No in the last week gets to mysteriously and forlornly allude to "being rugpulled by the people who make the rules" before taking a hit of their vape

1 reply
Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO

@DavePanfilo What an unbelievably cringe way to end an otherwise exciting market

PC avatar
PhilCpredicted YES

Leaving this here

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

I'm away for maybe ~1h and will likely resolve this YES and generate a random reopening time for other markets when I get back, unless I am convinced otherwise.

Edit: this didn't happen, see comments above. I decided to reopen and not count retroactively-changed numbers, but count future numbers as published.

1 reply
PC avatar
PhilCpredicted YES

@chrisjbillington I don't think you have to worry about the random reopening. Whenever you open is random to us (just not to you).

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

Bet here on a market with an offset of 15 applied, which was the difference that the code change made to the latest number (Sep 25th, 1216 → 1201):

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

Cripes, how should I resolve this one, though?

Closed so no trading. Discussion there.

4 replies
PC avatar
PhilCpredicted YES

@chrisjbillington I mean Sep 21 wasn't an option, so that still stands

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@PC Aha lol. Great! I can reopen this one.

@Shump how exactly could I use fairlyRandom to randomise reopening? I generate bools with some probability at regular intervals and reopen when it says True?

Edit: actually I won't reopen it quite yet, since trading will still be influenced by what it looks like I'm going to do. I shouldn't reopen until that's final, though I've indicated which way I'm thinking unless convinced otherwise.

Shump avatar
Shumppredicted NO

@chrisjbillington you use the bot to generate an int, not a bool. Then just open it after that many hours or whatever. No option to generate a real number, sadly. Syntax is @ fairlyrandom max

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted YES

@Shump Then everyone will know in advance, no? Is that of benefit to just saying I'll reopen in X hours where I chose X?