Will Manifold have a day below 1200 engaged users by end of September?
143
4k
1.9k
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
YES

Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.

Addendum Sep 13th:

Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's

community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular

collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are

fine.

In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to

correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.

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predicted NO

I think this market is yet another example that the default should be that creators can't bet in their own markets. There is always going to be plausible deniability if the market is being interpreted in the creator's favor but it leaves a sour taste in people's mouths. The simple thing to do is to make it easy to hand off market creation.

predicted NO

Chris, this is nothing against you in particular. But these kind of events happen all the time

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch For what it's worth, and for those with a sour taste in their mouths, I think the plausible deniability is very strong in this case. It might not look like it, but the way I handled this was very much against my interests.

@PC and I knew to expect a drop of 39 in the engagement figures yesterday, due to the Ukrainian mana farming accounts dropping out of the numbers (they ceased farming 5 days prior). And we are calculating live intra-day numbers and when the numbers changed, we knew this market was with very high probability resolving in our favour today regardless. The only reason the price wasn't even higher was because @PC and I knew people would keep betting NO and wanted to spread out our bets so that we didn't run out of balance prior to resolution, to get a better average price.

(The unconvincing act about bribery and other subterfuge was ineffective FUD, if it wasn't clear at the time)

For me the most profitable way to handle things would have been to leave the market open and declare I would apply an offset or something for continuity with the previous numbers. Then I could have kept trading and extracted more mana from NO betters for the remainder of the day.

More relevant to my interests, by accepting the new numbers, I've also jeopardised my 88k stake betting that engagement won't drop below 1150, which will now be a close call. I really really didn't want the numbers to take a -15 hit for that one, after the farmers ceasing already dropped it 39 compared to the trend I was betting based on earlier in the month.

Not implying you need convincing @MarcusAbramovitch, but I thought it would be good for people to know - there was next to no chance this market was resolving any other way, and I've made my chances elsewhere worse, so I hope this gives me some cred.

bought Ṁ5,391 of YES

1167, resolves YES.

predicted YES

Would have been 1181 if not for the changes implemented today.

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

I wonder if people will pay me more for intel in the future 😉

predicted NO

so is no on autolose cuz of sept 21?

predicted YES

@higherLEVELING No - resolution won't recognise retroactively-changed numbers. But numbers published from now on, using Manifold's new calculation, do count.

predicted YES

A good point I think by @Willi is that even if you accept that the algorithm changing is just bad luck, using retroactively-changed numbers is a bit on the nose.

GDP markets that don't specify they factor in revisions would probably be assumed not to, and I think this is a fair default.

I plan to reopen the markets at 05:30 UTC ( a little over half an hour from the time of comment) and have them resolve based on the new numbers henceforth, but disregarding retroactive changes to numbers published for previous days.

I don't think there is a good way to randomise reopening in a way that doesn't just give me an advantage trading (or having to commit to not trading for some arbitrary period of time, also not ideal) so have opted for a public fixed time.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Would be nice if we could edit limit orders while closed! That’s the main issue I see

predicted YES

@Gen Wait so are you resolving this YES?

predicted YES

@Gen Ah :(. Any ideas?

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Not really. Just gotta go fast

We’re lucky you closed the markets at all, at least that gives a bit of prep time

predicted YES

@PC I'm reopening and will resolve YES if future numbers are below 1200, or NO at the end of the month.

predicted YES

@Gen managram me your balance so the limit orders bounce. I'll send it back I promise.

Anyone else wanna managram your balance to me or someone you trust, pinky swear you get it back as soon as you cancel your limit orders or they get cancelled.

predicted YES
predicted YES

@chrisjbillington or create an unlisted market, dump your balance it in, then resolve NA

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington As far as I can tell, I’ve successfully closed my limit orders

(Unless the UI is lying to me)

On mobile, go to closed markets, tap to see limits, tap cancel

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington understood. I'm not stoked, but I also somewhat agree with the conclusion and am mostly frustrated at how the situation blindsided (all of) us. it means a lot that you took time to lock things down and reassess openly

Everyone who traded No in the last week gets to mysteriously and forlornly allude to "being rugpulled by the people who make the rules" before taking a hit of their vape

predicted NO

@DavePanfilo What an unbelievably cringe way to end an otherwise exciting market

predicted YES

Leaving this here

predicted YES

I'm away for maybe ~1h and will likely resolve this YES and generate a random reopening time for other markets when I get back, unless I am convinced otherwise.

Edit: this didn't happen, see comments above. I decided to reopen and not count retroactively-changed numbers, but count future numbers as published.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I don't think you have to worry about the random reopening. Whenever you open is random to us (just not to you).

predicted YES

Bet here on a market with an offset of 15 applied, which was the difference that the code change made to the latest number (Sep 25th, 1216 → 1201):