Will Manifold have a day below 1185 engaged users by end of September (post retroactive change of counting algorithm)?
Basic
9
Ṁ13k
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
YES

Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats

An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.


This market was created after the retroactive change to engagement numbers that took place on Sep 26th pacific time, and will be resolved exactly according to the numbers as written on the stats page as they come.

The choice of 1185 is to be the same threshold of 1200 as the other large market, but with an offset of 15 applied - which is how much the latest day's engagement was decreased upon the retroactive change.

Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's

community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular

collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are

fine.

In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to

correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

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