An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
Resolves according to https://manifold.markets/stats, with one modification:
Based on publicly available Manifold data, I will compute how many of the following 44 users satisfy the criteria for engagement (29 do at time of writing), and subtract them off the engagement figure from the Manifold stats page for that day. If for any day in September the resulting figure is less than 1150, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO at the end of the month.
The usernames and ids of these accounts can be found here:
https://gist.github.com/chrisjbillington/b0fe24f1b619f777e5974fd8eb7868ec
These are accounts that appear to be farming streak bonuses for the purposes of donating mana to a charity supporting the Ukrainian war effort. This is a violation of Manifold's community guidelines and will likely be stopped at some point, admins have been made aware but seem to be short on time given Manifest.
As with the other engagement markets, market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are
fine.
In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so.
Note that unless evidence emerges that suggests otherwise, the mana farming operation would not be excluded under the above conditions, as it appears to be unrelated CG-violating activity, and not an attempt at manipulating engagement markets. Hence the need for a separate market if we want to bet over what engagement would be without them counted.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ5,897 | |
| 2 | Ṁ610 | |
| 3 | Ṁ208 | |
| 4 | Ṁ50 | |
| 5 | Ṁ48 |
@Shump No they got removed because as of yesterday they had not been active for at least two days of each of the preceding three weeks. That link you shared was the last day they were active (the 20th), which means they're no longer engaged from the 26th.
I've closed this pending discussion here:
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/when-will-manifold-fall-below-1200
For your convenience, here is the number of these users that have satisfied the criteria for being engaged each day so far:
2023-08-13 1
2023-08-14 1
2023-08-15 1
2023-08-16 1
2023-08-17 1
2023-08-18 1
2023-08-19 1
2023-08-20 1
2023-08-21 1
2023-08-22 1
2023-08-23 6
2023-08-24 6
2023-08-25 6
2023-08-26 6
2023-08-27 8
2023-08-28 13
2023-08-29 9
2023-08-30 13
2023-08-31 18
2023-09-01 14
2023-09-02 14
2023-09-03 14
2023-09-04 18
2023-09-05 19
2023-09-06 19
2023-09-07 19
2023-09-08 24
2023-09-09 24
2023-09-10 24
2023-09-11 24
2023-09-12 24
2023-09-13 24
2023-09-14 24
2023-09-15 24
2023-09-16 29
2023-09-17 29
2023-09-18 29