Resolves YES if there is a day on which there are no ordinary commercial flights leaving Lebanon, that an ordinary person would be able to catch to leave the country.

Resolves NO if commercial flights continue until the end of 2023.

One full calendar day with no flights is both necessary and sufficient for the market to resolve. The market will still resolve even if flights subsequently resume.

If flights are still operating but tickets are all sold out, that will not be sufficient for the market to resolve.

If flights are operating but tickets were never available to ordinary people in the first place because they are restricted to certain types of people only, then the market will resolve to the first date on which there are no flights carrying ordinary people who bought unrestricted tickets.

To determine whether flights are operating and under what conditions, I will rely on media reports from reputable international media sources, or other reliable sources such as flight radars and other flight tracking websites, provided there is reason to believe they are accurate and relevant.

Relevant timezone for calendar dates is local time in Lebanon.