When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War?
35
1.2kṀ26k
2026
0.2%
March 2025
0.2%
April 2025
0.2%
May 2025
0.3%
June 2025
9%
July-August 2025
20%
September-October 2025
70%
Other

Resolves when Israel and Hamas (or whichever authority governs the Gaza strip) agree to another ceasefire that lasts for at least a week or (without a formal agreement) large-scale fighting in Gaza stops for at least 1 month with reputable media sources indicating that this pause is seen as an end to the war (as opposed to a temporary break for a holiday or similar)

Note that the market resolves to when when the ceasefire begins, though the market will not close until a week/month after this date

Will add months and extend the market as needed

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The start date of the ceasefire will be determined using the Israeli time zone.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqv2qjg5vvo.amp

Netanyahu doesn't want a deal, and Trump supports him.

filled a Ṁ10 YES at 14% order

Ceasefire has to last for a week. 98% confidence that it will hold that long is too high

https://amp-cnn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/05/31/middleeast/hamas-us-ceasefire-plan-response-intl

"Hamas’ response to the US proposal demanded changes to three key areas, the source said: extending the ceasefire past 60 days, humanitarian assistance, and the positions to which Israeli troops will withdraw."

What time zone would this be resolved under?

@Shifbru Israeli time zone

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