When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War?
29
1.1kṀ21k
2026
0.3%
March 2025
0.3%
April 2025
0.2%
May 2025
0.4%
June 2025
78%
July-August 2025
21%
Other

Resolves when Israel and Hamas (or whichever authority governs the Gaza strip) agree to another ceasefire that lasts for at least a week or (without a formal agreement) large-scale fighting in Gaza stops for at least 1 month with reputable media sources indicating that this pause is seen as an end to the war (as opposed to a temporary break for a holiday or similar)

Note that the market resolves to when when the ceasefire begins, though the market will not close until a week/month after this date

Will add months and extend the market as needed

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The start date of the ceasefire will be determined using the Israeli time zone.

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