!!! Sort by Low % !!!
The next Starship integrated flight test is (possibly) nearly upon us! SpaceX is reportedly working towards a launch No Earlier Than (NET) November 13th 15th 17th 18th, pending regulatory approval.
Resolves YES for the date, local time in Texas, on which the second Starship–Superheavy integrated test flight launches, YES for all later dates, and NO for all earlier dates.
"Launch" means ignition and release of hold-down clamps, subsequent events irrelevant.
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
More dates will be added based on vibes and plausible schedules and rumours.
Edit Nov 3rd: added the remaining weekdays of the week of Nov 13th
Edit Nov 8th: added Nov 18th
Edit Nov 8th: changed the definition of "launch". It turns out that the launch clamps may be released well in advance of ignition, such that they should not be used as part of the defintion of "launch"
Edit Nov 13th: Added Nov 19th and 20th
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The incorrectly re-resolved answer has now been fixed! Thanks @JamesGrugett and @Eliza for the help. Profits should now be correct.
@NGK Hopefully they can fix it before end of the season. It's the weekend now, but let's see what admins say when they're back at work. Discord thread here: https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1175435915083128942
@NGK This should not have happened. Didn't I already resolve it NO earlier today? I ran a script to bet on and resolve remaining answers, and I left in the 17th by accident, but the API should not have allowed me to do that! I'll ask for this to be re-resolved (and for the 14k mana I bet YES on it to be returned, hopefully?)
@NGK Does anyone have a record that I did in fact resolve the 17th NO earlier today? I thought I did it when you asked me to a few hours ago.
@Irigi Thank you! I will ask admins for help fixing the problem.
Edit: bug reported on discord. Sorry for the screw-up, folks.
Propellant load underway:
Spacex's launch page now saying:
The second flight test of a fully integrated Starship is set to launch Saturday, November 18. A twenty-minute launch window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT.
@chrisjbillington 20 minute launch window seems pretty small. Any hold like last time seems like it will stop the launch.
@NGK Once the vehicle is loaded with propellant, I'm pretty sure they have to launch within some time less than 20m anyway, otherwise too much propellant bpils off and they'll have to scrub and spend 48h detanking and retanking. So a hold late in the count like last time won't be any more of a problem than it would be with a 2h window. But the short launch window will mean they can't tolerate delays prior to propellant loading either.
@chrisjbillington Would you be willing to make a few entries for time of day on the 17th? That could actually be useful info at this point.
@BoltonBailey Local residents reporting that they've been told they're not evacuating tonight.
@chrisjbillington But SpaceX is moving in the equipment needed for a destack - so it looks like there'll be a destack.
@BoltonBailey @Eliza , Do you think time-of-day is particularly interesting? The launch window is only two hours long.
Resolve % increases by 10% for each 12 minutes after 5min 59 sec into launch window
so that
0 to 5 min 59sec into launch window resolves 0%
6 min to 17 min 59sec into launch window resolves 10%
...
114 min to end of window resolves 100%
If not launched wait for next launch window.
This is cheaper than 11 multichoice answers.
Does that sound reasonable?
@jack If the window is 2 hours that sounds like a separate question that people might be live betting on, rather than "what date"
"The second flight test of a fully integrated Starship is set to launch Saturday, November 18. A twenty-minute launch window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT."
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-2
20 mins only!