Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
11
65
1k
2040
67%
chance

-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

-"an": the deaths must be from the same source, such as a glitch, misfire or AI attack (we won't combine unrelated disasters). We'll include cumulative deaths over time (such as the same glitch killing people over several months), as long as it's credible that the deaths were caused by the same AI problem.

-"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.

-"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement. Unless the AI was correctly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.

-"kill": they must have deceased, not merely been injured/poisoned/etc.

-"at least 1,000": if the disaster causes ongoing deaths (such as by poisoning the atmosphere) then we will include the ongoing deaths, with the best available estimate.

-"Before 2040": resolves No in 2040-Jan if the above hasn't happened, otherwise resolves Yes whenever there is a consensus that it happened.

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The prospect of an AI-related disaster resulting in the loss of a thousand lives before 2040 is a concern that must be taken seriously; however, the likelihood of such an event occurring is mitigated by several factors. The field of AI has become increasingly conscious of the potential risks associated with advanced AI systems. This awareness is driving a concerted effort among researchers, policymakers, and industry leaders to establish rigorous ethical guidelines and safety standards. With the global community's growing focus on responsible AI development, it is expected that safety measures will evolve in parallel with technological advancements. Furthermore, the implementation of AI is typically accompanied by extensive testing and gradual integration, particularly in high-stakes areas such as healthcare, autonomous transportation, and industrial automation, where the cost of failure could be high. Given the current trajectory of AI safety research and the proactive steps being taken by the AI community, it is reasonable to forecast that the necessary precautions will be in place to prevent such a large-scale disaster.