Conditional on Tower writing his infamous Catholicism posts in the next year, will they convert at least one person in the year following?
9%
chance
If Tower does not write and publish his full series of conversion posts by Oct 13, 2023, the market closes as N/A.
If he does publish them by the deadline, the market will remain open for 1 year following the publishing of the last post, or until someone converts to Catholicism and agrees that the posts were a nontrivial contributing factor in their decision.
The convert can't have already have been Christian (raised Christian is fine). Agnostic, atheist, or of a non-Christian religion are all acceptable. If someone is actively going through the RCIA process when the year runs out, I'll count it.
