Will Manifold have more than 1500 engaged users by the end of November?
resolved Dec 1


More than 1500 means >1500 (so exactly 1500 would not resolve yes)

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predicted NO

1421 today, resolves NO @cc6

predicted NO

This market is done. But there's more action on the horizon:

Newly active users from the start of the Sam Altman drama will start to become engaged starting Dec 2nd.

Will they push engagement over 1500?

Will engagement fall below 1400 in the final day of November, before they can?

Or sometime month?

Will a Time Magazine article on Manifold be published before mid December, leaving time for engagement numbers to be pushed to never-before-seen heights?

Gamble on on this, and more!

Trading activity has fallen off over the last couple days.

I bet if Chris shared everything he knows about the state of the market, we might see additional participation. PERHAPS the market would move to a single digit percent. Or perhaps we would see it rise to 20%.

I have bad news for the Yes holders:

The last few days have featured not just one, but multiple "big events" that got a lot of attention on Manifold:

- OpenAI

- Starship Launch
- CZ/Binance event

- Multiple direct mentions on reputable news (Bloomberg, more?)

If this has not already "re-engaged" almost every nearly-engaged user from the last few weeks within about 1 more day, I am thinking it will be really tough to find any additional unengaged or barely-engaged users to re-engage over the next few days.

Basically, I think it will be hard to make a spike from here.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Eliza it might get close tho, as we haven't seen all of the reactivations from those two yet in the charts

predicted NO

@Stralor still, i agree its unlikely, I'm deep on NO.

@Stralor I was thinking maybe the most recent update, after several consecutive days of OpenAI drama, would possibly re-activate some who had just showed up on one day of OpenAI, but it was mainly able to stay steady.

If it drops today, it won't be looking good!

@Stralor Although, there should still be a trickle coming in over the next week who just need a 3rd week if OpenAI got them their 2nd week.

predicted YES

Looks iffy that we will hit 1500

To my knowledge, the last three days have been:


What do we think it will be next time! This looks intense.

@Eliza I am feeling like a lot of the Engagement Activation from OpenAI has probably passed, but there are probably still some nearly-Engaged users who could get tripped.


We also may still be on the tailing-off of any users who became quickly-engaged in the October Speaker Spike, and have now become less engaged.

@Eliza New update! 1466!

predicted YES

@Eliza 1466! Is a huge increase, and 7e4006 is at least 1500 if I got the arithmetic right.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

1467 -> 1500 seems pretty easy with the huge traffic this weekend, right? Some users who were active for 2 weeks will have returned for a 3rd they wouldn't have otherwise, who were active for 1 week will now be active for 2 more weeks, etc.

@Jacy My main concern is there is one user who knows exactly the names of every single one of those users who were active for 2 weeks and have not yet returned for a 3rd, and they are holding a lot of No shares.

predicted YES

@Eliza do you mean a Manifold employee? Or does Chris Billington somehow know? My thought was that people just haven't updated in this market for the weekend's craziness, in part because there are many other much more obvious money-making opportunities.

@Jacy Anyone who is interested can download the data about users and their activity and compile the information. I know at least one user has done this and checks it regularly.

bought Ṁ75 of YES

Maybe I’m just throwing away mana here, but 7% chance for it to go from 1467 to 1500 within the next couple weeks seems low to me, even though it is a delayed metric

@dominic Looks like you can double your money if you sell right now.

predicted NO

What's going on right now?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@cc6 It looks like as of today there are 1420 engaged users!

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Eliza Why is everyone buying YES for no reason??

bought Ṁ10 YES at 9%
predicted NO

@cc6 If you don't talk about it, you can keep buying No!

sold Ṁ114 of NO

@Eliza I just made 10% on my money in 3 minutes!

predicted NO

@cc6 @Eliza It's not quite as clear as that. The market on Sam Altman being fired has increased activity dramatically. Whilst new users can't count as engaged in November, site activity is up amongst existing users as well, including those on the cusp of counting as engaged. Today's engaged users number will be a decent jump up. Not 1500 yet, but...

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@chrisjbillington Engaged users basically takes 3 weeks to change. There's only 2 weeks left in the month

predicted NO

@cc6 It takes 2 weeks and 2 days minimum for a completely inactive user to count as engaged.

It takes only a single day for a user who was one action away from counting as engaged to become engaged. Today's engaged user number (that will be published around midnight pacific time) is already up to 1458

@cc6 There can be any number of users who made 2 actions within the last 1 week before today, who might now be engaged for this week, and the next one.

@Eliza (Just so everyone understands exactly how much I care about this market)