https://manifold.markets/stats
More than 1500 means >1500 (so exactly 1500 would not resolve yes)
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This market is done. But there's more action on the horizon:
Newly active users from the start of the Sam Altman drama will start to become engaged starting Dec 2nd.
Will they push engagement over 1500?
Will engagement fall below 1400 in the final day of November, before they can?
Or sometime month?
Will a Time Magazine article on Manifold be published before mid December, leaving time for engagement numbers to be pushed to never-before-seen heights?
Gamble on on this, and more!
I have bad news for the Yes holders:
The last few days have featured not just one, but multiple "big events" that got a lot of attention on Manifold:
- OpenAI
- Starship Launch
- CZ/Binance event
- Multiple direct mentions on reputable news (Bloomberg, more?)
If this has not already "re-engaged" almost every nearly-engaged user from the last few weeks within about 1 more day, I am thinking it will be really tough to find any additional unengaged or barely-engaged users to re-engage over the next few days.
Basically, I think it will be hard to make a spike from here.
@Eliza it might get close tho, as we haven't seen all of the reactivations from those two yet in the charts
@Stralor I was thinking maybe the most recent update, after several consecutive days of OpenAI drama, would possibly re-activate some who had just showed up on one day of OpenAI, but it was mainly able to stay steady.
If it drops today, it won't be looking good!
@Stralor Although, there should still be a trickle coming in over the next week who just need a 3rd week if OpenAI got them their 2nd week.
@Eliza I am feeling like a lot of the Engagement Activation from OpenAI has probably passed, but there are probably still some nearly-Engaged users who could get tripped.
HOWEVER
We also may still be on the tailing-off of any users who became quickly-engaged in the October Speaker Spike, and have now become less engaged.
@Eliza 1466! Is a huge increase, and 7e4006 is at least 1500 if I got the arithmetic right.
@Jacy My main concern is there is one user who knows exactly the names of every single one of those users who were active for 2 weeks and have not yet returned for a 3rd, and they are holding a lot of No shares.
@Eliza do you mean a Manifold employee? Or does Chris Billington somehow know? My thought was that people just haven't updated in this market for the weekend's craziness, in part because there are many other much more obvious money-making opportunities.
@Jacy Anyone who is interested can download the data about users and their activity and compile the information. I know at least one user has done this and checks it regularly.
@cc6 @Eliza It's not quite as clear as that. The market on Sam Altman being fired has increased activity dramatically. Whilst new users can't count as engaged in November, site activity is up amongst existing users as well, including those on the cusp of counting as engaged. Today's engaged users number will be a decent jump up. Not 1500 yet, but...
@chrisjbillington Engaged users basically takes 3 weeks to change. There's only 2 weeks left in the month
@cc6 It takes 2 weeks and 2 days minimum for a completely inactive user to count as engaged.
It takes only a single day for a user who was one action away from counting as engaged to become engaged. Today's engaged user number (that will be published around midnight pacific time) is already up to 1458
@cc6 There can be any number of users who made 2 actions within the last 1 week before today, who might now be engaged for this week, and the next one.