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Will Ukraine become more authoritarian in 2025?
19
Ṁ100Ṁ879
Mar 31
47%
chance

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Ukraine's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2026) compared to the last report (which can be found here).


If Ukraine's democracy score for 2025 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

What's the rationale for voting NO?

Even if you like Zelenskyy, wartime naturally results in consolidation of power around the head of state - aka authoritarianism.


Plus there was that corruption scandal (incl public protests) in June 2025.

@Hakari my reasons (briefly):

  • usually at least ~50% of countries have their "democracy score" increase or remain unchanged each year

  • Zelensky's consolidation of power, martial law and other authoritarianism mostly came into effect in 2021-2022 and has probably been accounted for in previous editions

  • the controversial provisions of law 12414 were quickly repealed

  • the Democracy Index methodology is a tad vibes-based and the likes of The Economist tend to view Ukraine through rose-coloured glasses

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