Will Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) cease to be de facto leader of Saudi Arabia before 2030?
6
130Ṁ230
2030
11%
chance

Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is the crown prince and prime minister of Saudi Arabia. Although some press outlets referred to MBS as "de facto leader" as early as 2015, the term appears to have only become consensus in 2017, with the label used for example by The New York Times and The Economist.

This question relies on a potentially ambiguous term (de facto leader) and therefore resolves according to credible sources and, where necessary, my personal judgement.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If MBS becomes King, he will still be considered de facto leader for the purposes of this question.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

  • De facto leader status will be determined based on evidence of intangible power held by MBS and mainstream press reporting, not solely based on official titles

  • If MBS becomes King, he will still be considered de facto leader for the purposes of this question

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