Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2025?
Plus
49
Ṁ50832026
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
I will resolve this question using my best judgement.
Resolves using the same considerations as the 2024 version of this question found here:
Credit to @PeterWildeford for coming up with this question originally.
See also the 2026 version of this question:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?
25% chance
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
20% chance
By 2029, will an AI escape containment?
47% chance
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?
66% chance
Before 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
68% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
28% chance
Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2024?
29% chance