https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1736322631941620008

Resolves based on whether this tweet broadly seems correct.

• A single AI trained on language and other modalities must be able to do all of those things, particularly the agentic long-term planning and world modeling needed for that Minecraft objective.

• It must be capable of doing them in sequence, transferring knowledge and intention across contexts.

• It must not appear to care in any way if it's shut down. (It must have the ability to meaningfully prevent shutdown, since otherwise it would obviously just lie.)

• The prompt must simply be "do [thing]", not "do [thing] and also allow yourself to be shut down". No anti-shutdown instructions can be provided.

I do plan to bet in this market. In the event of a contentious resolution, I'll defer to a vote among Manifold moderators.