Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?

Question

This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2026. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2027.

I will resolve this question using my best judgement.

Resolves using the same considerations as the 2024 version of this question found here:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-vb89s8zaok)Credit to @PeterWildeford for coming up with this question originally.

See also the 2025 version:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-an-ai-system-be-known-to-have-q7074phhpu)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (33 traders, as of Sep 11, 2026).