Will Americans' confidence in organized religion decline in 2024, according to Gallup?
Will Americans' confidence in organized religion decline in 2024, according to Gallup?
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170Ṁ733resolved Jul 15
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Gallup polls Americans on their confidence in American institutions, publishing results every summer (see 2023, 2022, 2021).
The number of Americans who report a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in the church and organized religion has declined from an all-time high of 68% in 1975 to 32% in 2023, the second lowest score after 2022's rating of 31%.
Will Gallup polling show a decline (i.e. 31% or less) in Americans' confidence in organized religion in 2024?
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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