Will Americans' confidence in newspapers decline in 2024, according to Gallup?
➕
Plus
20
Ṁ5656
resolved Jul 15
Resolved
NO

Gallup polls Americans on their confidence in American institutions, publishing results every summer (see 2023, 2022, 2021).

The number of Americans who report a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in newspapers has declined from an all-time high of 51% in 1979 to 18% in 2023, the second lowest score after 2022's rating of 16%.

Will Gallup polling show a decline (i.e. 17% or less) in Americans' confidence in newspapers in 2024?

More questions on Americans' confidence in US institutions:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

How are you weighting this? The way I read it, there was 0% net gain in confidence, and 3% net loss in confidence, which of course leads to a decline of 3%.

Assuming a simple and reasonable weighting of Great Deal = 2, Quite a lot = 1, Some = 0, Very Little = -1:

2023 has a score of 24 - 42 = -18. 2024 has a score of 25 - 45 = -20.

Therefore confidence in newspapers declined in 2024

Gallup has a simple/consistent methodology, as cited in the description:

> "The number of Americans who report a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in newspapers has declined from an all-time high of 51% in 1979 to 18% in 2023, the second lowest score after 2022's rating of 16%."

Confidence is the sum of the % who report a "great deal" or "quite a lot". In 2023, that was 6+12 = 18%. In 2024, 7+11=18%. Thus, there was no decline (17% or less).

But @cash didn't choose a weighting—this is how Gallup defines their headline number (hence 18% being used as the bar). That's how you got "18%" for 2023 (and 18% for 2024).

agh, i missed that.

sucks

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules