Canada is holding a federal election on the 28th of April.
The Liberal Party under Mark Carney, who recently succeeded Justin Trudeau as Canadian Prime Minister, has shot up in the polls and is currently projected to win more seats than the Conservative Party under Pierre Poilievre.
This question resolves based on which party won the most seats and whether their seat count is above or below 172 (enough to form a majority in the House of Commons). In the event of a tie, this question resolves to the relevant "tie" option (e.g. "Liberal-Conservative tie").
Note that this question does not resolve to who forms government - so in the unlikely event that the next government is a coalition of two parties, neither of which have the most seats alone, this question would nonetheless resolve to the party that has the most seats at the conclusion of the upcoming federal election, despite their not forming government.
Also note I have retained the ability to add answers in the other unlikely event a third party rises in the polls and warrants their own answers.
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Do you think Peter Njeim is doing a good job with his "Who will be the prime minister of Canada after the next election?" question!
Should he keep it open? Should he close it?
We want to know!
https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/what-will-peternjeims-resolution-ra?r=SGlsbGFyeUNsaW50b24
Elections Canada is reporting that 99.93% of polls are reporting. The CBC has called all races. The only two races that are set to hold recounts were won by Liberals (Terra Nova-The Peninsulas, Terrebonne), so if the recount alters the results it won't affect whether the Liberals win over or under 172 seats.
I therefore feel comfortable resolving this question and will do so tomorrow morning unless anyone would like to request I wait for all polls to be counted or has any other arguments I haven't considered.
@HillaryClinton aw, seems like I've lost my monopoly on arbing crazy low conservative prices on this market! It was good while it lasted. :')
@Ziddletwix Hmm. Resolving to Other is a good option. My other options would be to add a new option now that's e.g. "Liberal-Conservative tie", or resolve to percentages e.g. 50% Liberal most seats but not majority and 50% Conservatives most seats but not majority.
I lean towards resolving Other in the event of a tie, but am open to argument. If anyone has arguments I should hear before committing I'm open to it but will otherwise update the description tomorrow morning to resolving to other in a tie.
@cash Seems like it should resolve to "Other", since no party would have won the most seats.
You could also add "Tie" as an option.
@Ziddletwix Actually upon reflection, I think I would prefer to break-off "Liberal-Conservative tie" as an option. I'm inclined to do this because otherwise "Other" is both third parties (e.g. NDP becoming a viable option) and a tie between Liberals and Conservatives, which are substantively different and seem worthy of separation. If a tie resolves to a separate option, it also seems good to me to have traders be able to see that at a glance (rather than have to see the description to figure out what "Other" is doing).
Going to wait another 12 hours and if nobody had any major concerns with this approach I'll break off a "Liberal-Conservative tie" option and update the description.