What if the SPD and Greens formed some alliance when negotiating a coalition with CDU/CSU? Then the next chancellor heavily depends on the question if SPD and Greens combined get more seats than CDU/CSU! See this market for some probabilities.

German president dissolves parliament to pave way for February 23 snap elections

Created a separate question for the CDU candidate:

This market gets a Manifold-sponsored 5k Mana subsidy because I consider it of public interest.

I really dislike the all-caps title but the two duplicates use the old-style multiple-choice questions.

@marketwise god bless!

@marketwise It does sound more German with all-caps though 🤣

I HAVE NO IDEA

@NicoDelon THINK HARDER

@conradgetty GENAU!

@NicoDelon BEDIENE DIR DEIN VERSTANDNIS!

@conradgetty Bediene dich deines Verstandes! Or deiner DeepL-app. (yours means: "Serve yourself your understanding"