A Trump admin would try to block congestion pricing, which would likely be successful if congestion pricing is not already implemented when Trump takes office. Meanwhile Hochul wants to pass an alternative congestion pricing plan when the NY legislature returns to session in January, which would probably include congestion pricing at a lower price. So the election could strongly influence Hochul's decision on congestion pricing.

If Trump wins in November, Hochul could fold and move forward with the current congestion plan if she thinks any alternative would fail given the incoming admin and she thinks the budget situation with no alternative plan is untenable.

If Kamala wins, Hochul probably waits to try to pass her alternative, which means no congestion pricing before EOY.

By the way, in case anyone is wondering in light of this article in the NYT. I'll still resolve yes if the fee charged is lower (or higher) than the previously planned $15.

Hochul Is Pressed to Resurrect Congestion Pricing With Lower Toll https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/nyregion/congestion-pricing-hochul.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

MTA board declined to override Hochul even though her intervention wasn't really legally authoritative. Grim.

https://x.com/ZachReports/status/1799124714281218223

@JoshYou Looks like the NY legislature is going to end its 2024 session without passing any funding (either permanent or temporary) to replace congestion pricing revenue.

https://x.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1799193880530981138

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/06/05/hochul-considers-delaying-congestion-pricing

With less than a month until the implementation of congestion pricing, Gov. Kathy Hochul has decided to postpone the tolling program indefinitely, sources familiar with governor’s plans told NY1.

Hochul doesn't have final say, the MTA board still needs to vote on it. The reporting so far hasn't made it clear whether the board will just rubber stamp her decision or not.

@zQ4Z82W they're gunna overrule her this is gunna be such a shitshow

added this to a NYC dashboard here - https://manifold.markets/dashboard/nyc

NYC

dashboard created by Andy Martin

@AndyMartin this is great! Thanks Andy!

To clarify, when you say “by the end of 2024”, are you saying that it must still be in place at the end of 2024, or just be enacted at some point before then? If it is started before then and then reversed, will the question still resolve YES?

@Gabrielle It just needs to be enacted at some point between now and the end of 2024. If a single driver is charged the fee, then I consider it resolved Yes. Thanks for the clarifying question!

Updated the description to include this point.