Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
resolved by
109
1.4kṀ19k
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO
"The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html "Russia's main demand is a commitment from NATO to end its further expansion into former Soviet republics — especially Ukraine. Russia wants NATO to rescind a 2008 promise that Ukraine could someday join the defense alliance. Many observers see it as a distant prospect that Ukraine could join NATO because it doesn't meet membership requirements. But Moscow doesn't see it that way. "We don't trust the other side," Russia's chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said after bilateral talks with the U.S. finished Monday. "We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances. Not safeguards. Guarantees. With all the words — 'shall, must' — everything that should be put in."... The U.S. argues that countries have a right to choose their own alliances and NATO has a long-standing "open door policy" for potential membership. "NATO has never expanded through force or coercion or subversion. It is countries' sovereign choice to choose to come to NATO and say they want to join," Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Wednesday after a meeting between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels. Russia's actions are making the idea of NATO membership more appealing to Ukrainians, according to opinion polls. It is unlikely, however, that Ukraine will meet the requirements anytime soon." https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine ————————————————————————— This question resolves positively if Ukraine becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient. This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Ukraine joins NATO, whichever comes first. #RussiaUkraine #NATO #Ukraine
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1y

At the time of betting this was 17%, which seemed inconsistent with the 18% of the question below. Ukraine becoming a member of NATO within less than 18 months also just feels way less likely than a 1 in 6 event.

2y

This is not going to happen. Hopefully Ukraine defeats Russia and repels the invasion, but whether she does or doesn't, I don't think NATO membership is in her future.

2y

This question resolves positively if Ukraine becomes an official member of NATO before 2023.

I think you meant this to say 2025?

predictedNO 2y

never gonna happen

2y

yeah this makes no sese

3y
The only reason Ukraine would join NATO is if they win the war against Russia, but in that case there's no strong incentive to push them to quickly join NATO.

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