Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
Plus
109
Ṁ19kJan 1
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"The tense talks this week among the United States, Russia and European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have made one thing clear: While the Biden administration insists it will not allow Moscow to quash Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO, it has no immediate plans to help bring the former Soviet republic into the alliance." https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html
"Russia's main demand is a commitment from NATO to end its further expansion into former Soviet republics — especially Ukraine. Russia wants NATO to rescind a 2008 promise that Ukraine could someday join the defense alliance. Many observers see it as a distant prospect that Ukraine could join NATO because it doesn't meet membership requirements. But Moscow doesn't see it that way. "We don't trust the other side," Russia's chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said after bilateral talks with the U.S. finished Monday. "We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances. Not safeguards. Guarantees. With all the words — 'shall, must' — everything that should be put in."...
The U.S. argues that countries have a right to choose their own alliances and NATO has a long-standing "open door policy" for potential membership. "NATO has never expanded through force or coercion or subversion. It is countries' sovereign choice to choose to come to NATO and say they want to join," Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Wednesday after a meeting between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels. Russia's actions are making the idea of NATO membership more appealing to Ukrainians, according to opinion polls. It is unlikely, however, that Ukraine will meet the requirements anytime soon." https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine
—————————————————————————
This question resolves positively if Ukraine becomes an official member of NATO before 2023. Being on the "path" towards joining is not sufficient.
This question resolves on 1/1/2025 or after Ukraine joins NATO, whichever comes first.
#RussiaUkraine
#NATO
#Ukraine
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?
45% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
30% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?
38% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035?
39% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2031?
40% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?
38% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2040?
46% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2030?
28% chance
Will Ukraine join NATO before the end of 2029?
20% chance
Which NATO countries will officially send soldiers to fight in Ukraine before the end of 2025?