What will be the margin of victory (in number of electors) for the 2024 US Presidential election?
Plus
35
Ṁ9667resolved Nov 10
Resolved
NO35 or fewer (as close as Bush-Kerry in '04)
Resolved
NO74 or fewer (as close as Biden-Trump in '20)
Resolved
YES126 or fewer (as close as Obama-Romney in '12)
Resolved
YES192 or fewer (as close as Obama-McCain in '08)
The margin of victory is the difference between the number of electors received by the winner and the runner-up.
For example, in 2020, Biden won with 306 electors and Trump was second with 232 so the margin of victory was 306-232=74. Here's a table for elections since 2000:
More than one of the options can resolve "YES". This question concerns how many electors are won (and not how they subsequently vote), so we should be able to resolve fairly soon after the election.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
What will be the exact electoral college outcome in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
How large is the (optimal) voter margin for the US 2024 Presidential Election?
How many electoral college votes will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election receive?
How many electoral votes will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election have?
Which state will have the closest margin of victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
How much of the popular vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential election win with 300 or more electors?
96% chance
What will the House popular vote margin be in 2024?
Who will win US Election 2024
POLL