*BONUS ALERT!* Any user that adds the exact correct answer prior to the start of election day (Tuesday, November 5, 2024 Midnight ET) will win Ṁ2500 upon the resolution of the market!
Participants are invited to predict the exact distribution of electoral college votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, where 538 votes are at stake, and 270 are required to win the presidency. Participants must specify the exact number of electoral votes each major candidate will receive, ensuring the total equals 538.
If the official candidate for either the Democratic or Republican party changes (e.g., Tim Walz replaces Kamala Harris, or a different Republican replaces Donald Trump), participants should make predictions based on the replacement candidate. In such cases, the electoral college totals should be projected as if the replacement candidate were the original nominee. Clarifications will be made to the text, but no further adjustments will be made and the market will remain open.
This market will resolve based on the official certified electoral vote count as reported by the U.S. Congress when the results are formally declared. The market will consider the final certified totals, including any changes due to fringe scenarios or candidate replacements, to ensure an accurate resolution.
In the event that the electoral votes are not certified by the U.S. Congress within the expected timeframe, the market will either be extended until certification is completed (no longer than 30 days) or resolved based on the available outcomes.
If the certification process is delayed longer than 30 days, the market creator may choose to extend the market’s duration until the votes are officially certified. However, if it becomes clear that certification will not occur, all options in the market (including OTHER*) will be resolved NO. Market will not be unresolved or re-resolved for any reason after votes are certified and the correct initial resolution is made.
In the case of an electoral tie, the actual winning candidate of the election will not come into play or have any bearing in the resolution of the market. In that scenario, the market will resolve to "(Harris) 269 - 269 (Trump)."
"In the event of faithless electors—electors who do not vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged—the market will resolve based on the final, certified electoral vote count as officially reported by the U.S. Congress.
This means that if any electors cast their votes for a candidate other than the one they were pledged to, the electoral votes for the candidate who actually receives those votes will be counted toward their final total for the purposes of this market. The market’s resolution is strictly tied to the certified outcome, regardless of whether or not the electoral votes reflect the expected or pledged results.
Participants should be aware that the official certification, including any votes cast by faithless electors, will determine the market's final resolution
I reserve the right to open or close this market at any time, for any reason, at my sole discretion. This includes, but is not limited to, situations where new developments, unforeseen circumstances, or any other factors may impact the fairness, accuracy, or integrity of the market. Terms and conditions of this market are subject to change at any time based on new information or platform updates.
Traders are encouraged to add their own answers. Only options added in the correct format (see below) will be considered for resolution, otherwise they will resolve NO. Duplicates will resolve NO. Spam will resolve NO. Anything not submitted in the template below will be resolved NO. Any option with a non-major candidate will resolve NO. No fees will be returned.
(Harris) xxx - xxx (Trump)
(Trump) xxx - xxx (Harris)
Order on line is determined by highest number, where highest number is first (except in a tie, where it is alphabetical)
Although the best option for this market is for it to be Multiple Choice - Dependent, in order to provide better market moderation over user submissions, I have made it Multiple Choice - Independent. This allows for spam submissions, improperly structured submissions, or completely implausible scenarios to be resolved NO and reduce resolution issues. Therefore, be aware that "OTHER*" will not automatically provide shares in newly added answers. It is explicitly for a scenario where the exact final electoral outcome is not listed as an answer prior to the resolution or the result includes a 3rd party.
Users are encouraged to also post a comment with a photo of their exact electoral map predictions. Even if users have not submitted an answer or the option in the map does not align with any of the answers, the first to post an image of the exact correct electoral map prior to the start of election day (Tuesday, November 5, 2024 Midnight ET) will win Ṁ500.
Related questions
There's exactly one possibility on the board (not counting OTHER) that is reasonably priced according to Nate Silver's analysis: he has Trump 312 - 226 Harris at 6.1% likely. No other single outcome comes close; the nearest is Trump 317 - 221 Harris at 3.1% likely. There are just too many roughly equally likely possible combinations of states, because with a few exceptions the correlations are fairly loose. The only real way for a score to be relatively likely is if an unusually large number of plausible maps add up to it.
(Moreover, given that the Silver Bulletin model builds in a fairly significant chance of overall poll bias, I don't expect any other outcome to go above 5% even if the polls move by less than 3 points between now and November.)
@PatrickLV Many lip from you, not enough mana! Nate Silver is not the true man I am looking for when it is coming to prediction, he is corrupted by the polymarket cartel and crippling degenerate gamblers addictions, like the tortoise and harem Tik tok🙁🫠🫠🫠. Not a voice of any reason this election and ego is too big for such the little brittle britches. Definition of broke clock cuckoos right twice a day before I am throwing the shoe at it to quiet down, trying to sleep into it! Long story short, be making the predictions and stop the clowning, all lip no smack.
Going by current manifold markets
Democrat states: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, ME-1, MD, MA, MI, MN, NE-2, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA and WI
Republican states: AL, AK, AZ, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME-2, MS, MO, MT, NE, NE-1, NE-3, NV, NC, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY
(Trump) 287 - 251 (Harris)
I don’t have the mana to add the option, but it feels like a quite likely result?
there are 7 swing states and 2 of those have the exact same electoral vote count there are already over 25 answers so i think the odds of other were too high given that it does not even include newly added answers based on code written by chat gpt there are 59 possible outcomes and its likely that the ones posted are the more likely of those so i think even 35% odds may be too high for other
I collected all markets for each state here on manifold and summed them:
https://johannorberg.github.io/mm_us24el/
Also ran monte carlo simulation.
Monte carlo simulation has it (harris) 281-257
Just going with manifold has it (harris) 287-251
Seriously folks, this is the Y axis on the possible distributions it tops out at 4% !!. There are a lot of possibilities, none of the ones here should be in double-digits.
@DavidFWatson Yea, but just imagine the massive amount of clout you'd have if you get this right.