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MANIFOLD
Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
1
Ṁ1kṀ60
Sep 30
47%
chance

Resolution

Resolves YES if the highest Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score shown for any model is 65.0 or higher. Exactly 65.0 resolves YES.

Source and timing

A single reading: the leaderboard table on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index evaluation page at artificialanalysis.ai, default filters, at 23:59 UTC on September 30, 2026. I will screenshot the page at that time and post it here.

Third-party mirrors and trackers do not count, including where they disagree with the source. Any row counts, including different effort or reasoning configurations of an already-listed model, and including re-runs of existing models.

Resolution is by what appears on the leaderboard at market close, regardless of any publication or update date shown on the page.

The score must be published

A model release alone does not count. The score must appear on the page above at the snapshot time. A lab announcing a model, publishing its own benchmark numbers, or claiming an AA result that has not appeared on the AA page does not count.

If the index version changes

The index is currently v4.1.1. If AA publishes a new version before the snapshot, scores are chain-linked back to the v4.1.1 scale before comparison.

At creation I will post a screenshot recording six mid-frontier anchor rows — models that cannot plausibly hold the top spot — with their exact row labels, scores, and index version.

Adjustment: take the mean of whichever anchors have published scores under both versions, minimum three. The ratio is the old-version mean divided by the new-version mean. Multiply the new-version top score by that ratio, round to one decimal, and compare to 65.0.

If fewer than three anchors carry over, resolves N/A.

Anything else

Any situation not covered here resolves N/A rather than by my judgment. I will not trade in this market.

Market context
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