Who will be the first trillionaire?
5
175Ṁ110
2030
67%
Elon Musk
6%
Jeff Bezos
6%
Larry Ellison
5%
Mark Zuckerberg
6%
Jensen Huang
6%
Larry Page
6%
Other

Market Description:


Resolution criteria:

Resolves to the first person whose net worth reaches $1,000,000,000,000 USD (one trillion US dollars) as reported by Bloomberg Billionaires Index OR Forbes Real-Time Billionaires.

Rules:

  • Net worth must be publicly reported by at least one of the above sources

  • Intraday spikes count (no minimum holding period)

  • Nominal USD — no inflation adjustment

  • If sources disagree on timing, earliest confirmed report wins

  • "Other" resolves YES if first trillionaire is not listed among the options

Current candidates (Dec 2025 estimates):

  • Elon Musk: ~$400-450B (SpaceX, Tesla, xAI)

  • Jeff Bezos: ~$230B (Amazon, Blue Origin)

  • Mark Zuckerberg: ~$200B (Meta)

  • Bernard Arnault: ~$180B (LVMH)

  • Jensen Huang: ~$120B (Nvidia)

  • Larry Ellison: ~$150B (Oracle)

Notes:

  • Saudi/Chinese wealth often unreported — could trigger "Other"

  • SpaceX IPO is major catalyst for Musk

  • No expiration date — resolves whenever first trillionaire confirmed

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy