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MANIFOLD
Who will be the first trillionaire?
9
Ṁ175Ṁ1.2k
resolved Jun 12
100%99.0%
Elon Musk
0.2%
Jeff Bezos
0.2%
Larry Ellison
0.2%
Mark Zuckerberg
0.2%
Jensen Huang
0.2%
Larry Page
0.2%Other

Market Description:


Resolution criteria:

Resolves to the first person whose net worth reaches $1,000,000,000,000 USD (one trillion US dollars) as reported by Bloomberg Billionaires Index OR Forbes Real-Time Billionaires.

Rules:

  • Net worth must be publicly reported by at least one of the above sources

  • Intraday spikes count (no minimum holding period)

  • Nominal USD — no inflation adjustment

  • If sources disagree on timing, earliest confirmed report wins

  • "Other" resolves YES if first trillionaire is not listed among the options

Current candidates (Dec 2025 estimates):

  • Elon Musk: ~$400-450B (SpaceX, Tesla, xAI)

  • Jeff Bezos: ~$230B (Amazon, Blue Origin)

  • Mark Zuckerberg: ~$200B (Meta)

  • Bernard Arnault: ~$180B (LVMH)

  • Jensen Huang: ~$120B (Nvidia)

  • Larry Ellison: ~$150B (Oracle)

Notes:

  • Saudi/Chinese wealth often unreported — could trigger "Other"

  • SpaceX IPO is major catalyst for Musk

  • No expiration date — resolves whenever first trillionaire confirmed

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@bubbathepresident Resolve please @mods inactive creator and rules clearly say forbes or bloomberg
Forbes Real Time Billionaires List - The World's Richest People
CURRENT NET WORTH $1T

$207.2B (+26.13%)SINCE PRIOR TRADING DAY