Update 2026-08-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve to YES if a quadrillionaire is created, even if this occurs due to hyperinflation.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (12 traders, as of Aug 17, 2026).

World's first quadrillionaire before EOY 2040

MANIFOLD

World's first quadrillionaire before EOY 2040

Ṁ100Ṁ484

2040

31%

chance

ALL

Update 2026-08-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will resolve to YES if a quadrillionaire is created, even if this occurs due to hyperinflation.

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Would it count if the first quadrillionaire happened due to hyperinflation?

@Chachachi yes

bought Ṁ20 NO

First millionaire: John Jacob Astor in 1820s

First billionaire: Rockefellor, 1920s

First trillionaire: Musk, 2026

Carrying this logic i'd expect a quadrillionaire around 2120. But personally I'd expect it to take a bit longer to hit that mark, being a trillionaire is already disproportionately huge compared to being a millionaire in the 1820s.