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MANIFOLD
How long will Bryan Johnson live, assuming natural cause of death?
2
Ṁ125Ṁ37
2087
45%
Less than 80 years
27%
At least 80 years but less than 90 years
11%
At least 90 years but less than 100 years
8%
At least 100 years but less than 110 years
8%
More than 110 years

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the option corresponding to Bryan Johnson's chronological age at his time of death, provided that his death is determined to have occurred from natural causes and before August 22, 2087. If Bryan Johnson remains alive by August 22, 2087, this market will resolve to More than 110 years. If he passes away from non-natural causes (e.g., accident, homicide, suicide, external trauma, or natural disaster), this market will resolve to N/A.

  • Less than 80 years: Deceased before August 22, 2057.

  • At least 80 years but less than 90 years: Deceased on or after August 22, 2057, and before August 22, 2067.

  • At least 90 years but less than 100 years: Deceased on or after August 22, 2067, and before August 22, 2077.

  • At least 100 years but less than 110 years: Deceased on or after August 22, 2077, and before August 22, 2087.

  • More than 110 years: Not deceased before August 22, 2087.

Sources of Truth: The date and cause of death will be verified using official government records (such as an official death certificate or coroner's report) or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, or The New York Times). If the cause of death is highly ambiguous or remains unconfirmed for more than one year following his passing, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

Bryan Johnson (born August 22, 1977) is an American biohacker, entrepreneur, and venture capitalist. He is widely known for "Project Blueprint," an intensive anti-aging protocol on which he spends millions of dollars annually to systematically optimize his organs and biological age. In 2026, Johnson publicly revealed that he had been diagnosed with autoimmune gastritis, an incurable chronic condition that damages the lining of the stomach.

Because this market has an explicit precondition ("if he passes from natural causes"), a death resulting from accidents, violence, or external force will trigger an N/A resolution.

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