Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on FBI UCR)
3
90Ṁ315
Jan 1
5%
chance

Resolves based on whole-year comparisons of FBI UCR (https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-and-information/ucr) between 2022 and 2023, for the following definition of violent crimes: "In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses that involve force or threat of force."

Will resolve as soon as I become aware that UCR data for 2023 has been posted. Latest is probably Nov 2024.

Resolves N/A if FBI UCR data for 2023 does not become available in 2024, or if the FBI changes its definition of violent crime to make like-to-like comparison impossible.

Note that, due to potential variation in the number of police departments reporting, I will attempt to use a rate rather than absolute number (if reported).

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