Will research show that crime has increased by 2045 due to abortion restrictions passed in 2021-2022?
20
389
2045
42%
chance

Roe V Wade (which happened in the 70s) is commonly accepted by researchers to be responsible for a quarter of the drastic 10% decrease in crime in the 90s. (See https://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/LevittUnderstandingWhyCrime2004.pdf) Will researchers show an increase in crime 20 years after Roe V Wade was overturned?

This market will still stand even if the laws change again; there is already an increase in children being born due to these restrictions, and the increased crime in this hypothesis would be due to those children coming of age. (See https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23865297-jama_bell_2023_ld_230047_16879776321876 -- 9799 extra kids born from April to December 2022 due to the Texas heartbeat law)

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The question says "due to abortion restrictions" but in the description you have a different question that asks just about the raw difference in crime. It makes a big difference since the world will be significantly different in 20 years. I think you should make it consistent. Also, I think it should be only about crime in ~20 year olds if you want it to be relevant to the issue.

predicts YES

@na_pewno Yes I would resolve the question based on whether or not I can find a paper that specifically links the recent abortion restrictions to increase in crime. There are already papers cited by the Levitt paper I linked that show that all else as equal as possible, unwanted children are more likely to be criminals

How big does the effect have to be?

predicts YES

@JakeTeale just big enough to look plausibly real