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MANIFOLD
Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer in 1H of 2023?
23
Ṁ470Ṁ5.4k
resolved Jun 29
Resolved
NO

Classical decryptions don't count, but partially classical decryptions which use a quantum computer do.

Please post proof / articles in the comments.

Market context
Cryptography
Quantum Computing
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predictedNO

why make this, did OP think it was plausible or

@jacksonpolack I'm keeping a series of markets open as a warning of whether my PGP keys are in danger. See next year: https://manifold.markets/brp/will-1024bit-rsa-be-broken-by-a-qua-4357be8302fb

Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2024?
1.7% chance. Classical decryptions don’t count, but partially classical decryptions which use a quantum computer do. Please post proof / articles in the comments.

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