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it’s joever gamers:

gg almost everyone!

Wait I just realized is he going to get the 200k back or is it just gone now?

Edit: he received it back

@bagelfan

TLDR: Ammon Lam paid an alt to manipulate profits in a chess market; I did the same with a friend in the same market in an attempt to hedge the possibility AL’s trades counted but this hedge turned bad. Four possible worlds: A) neither trade counts (in my view the most sensible and most likely outcome), B) Mine counts and not his, C) his counts and not mine, D) both count. I win Masters in worlds A and B, AL wins in worlds C and D.

Hey @traders ! I want to explain some recent happenings on the leaderboard.

Background:

Two days ago, Ammon Lam transferred M200k to a previously inactive account ("Carmen Ma"). This account had no prior trades (except for three placed immediately before), markets, or comments. Ammon then placed a M976k NO limit order on Nakamura winning, which Carmen Ma filled before Ammon cancelled the order, in this market https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/who-will-win-the-2024-world-blitz-c

The timing and size appears designed to overcome my current M170k Masters lead. He:

• Paid his alt M200k to bet against him, just enough to overtake me from his starting profit of zero (0)

• He took the trade two days before league close

• He picked a bet with an 80-90% chance of winning

My Response:

In light of uncertainty about whether such trades will count for rankings, I took a defensive position:

• Asked my friend (hima999 - an established account) to take the opposite side of a Carlsen trade

• Transferred sufficient funds to maintain my lead if needed

• Placed and filled limit orders similar to Ammon's method

• But with smaller size (stood to win M40k, just enough to overtake him) and full transparency (commented on the market explaining, and am doing so here)

Unfortunately my hedge moved against me, although Carlsen did hit 99% and I briefly overtook Ammon (in ‘nominal’ profits). Two winners tied of the chess tournament tied, an unprecedented move.

Six key differences between our moves:

1. Defensive vs offensive action

2. Real relationship vs unused account

3. Smaller position size

4. Full disclosure here and in comments of market

5. Prior notification to mods (SirSalty/Agh) about potential counter-move

6. Established account with history

I believe neither trade should count for rankings, and I said as much on the chess market BEFORE the hedge went bad (check the timestamp on this comment https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/who-will-win-the-2024-world-blitz-c#0xdfbzuggbfa).

I executed the trade purely to hedge against the possibility Ammon Lam’s trade would count. Had Ammon Lam not taken his action, I would not have made this trade.

Possible outcomes:

Then there are 4 possible worlds:

1. Both Ammon Lam’s trade and mine are disqualified. Then he loses M200k profit, and I gain M10k (since I lost M10k on the attempted hedge). Then I win Masters.

2. AL’s trade is disqualified and not mine. Then AL loses M200k and nothing changes. Then I win Masters.

3. My trade is disqualified and not AL’s. I see no possible justification for this for the reasons listed above, but in this case, AL wins masters.

4. Neither trade is disqualified (setting a precedent I precommit to using in the next season to attempt to win, if this is indeed in the decision). Then AL wins masters.

I leave it to the market to judge the likelihood of these outcomes, although some relevant evidence from the Discord:

I also PMd David/ @SirSalty about AL’s trade, and his responded indicated that (direct quote) “boosting profit with an alt is definitely not allowed” (I hope you don’t mind me sharing this quote David).

Edits: links and images, typos

@summer_of_bliss deferring to the judgment here!

this is so cursed but yeah we'll see shortly how david rules about it

related market (arbitrage?):

@snazzlePop not an arb; that is a market on a different scheme ammon lam pulled four days ago

where he tried to get a 7/8 chance of winning M200k by martingaling, but the markets got unranked (and also he lost all three bets)

i am referring to his entirely separate scheme, where he paid a different account with no trade

history to bet against him here:

https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/who-will-win-the-2024-world-blitz-c

@summer_of_bliss

(and also he lost all three bets)

Just to point out in all these bets the counterparty transfers back the "lost" mana, obviously, else the scheme wouldn't work. It might seem he's risking millions of mana for silly leagues, but these are risk free (other than fines and/or reputation hit if caught).

@deagol yeah good point. although that reputational risk is real, my opinion of ammon lam really diminished after all these desperate schemes he tried to get away with

Failed martingale attempt by @AmmonLam

@AmmonLam jumped up to second place from just a single market this afternoon 👀

@snazzlePop looks like ammon paid this other user (old account which first traded three hours ago) to bet against him??

@summer_of_bliss I'm responding on the modhelp channel

@AmmonLam Why don’t you just play fair instead, Brad has been collecting profits this whole month and now you’re using underhanded tactics to try and steal his well deserved #1

@bagelfan lets keep the conversation in discord's modhelp channel? discussing here would be lacking the context and the opinions of the mods

Wait, based on the part of the description talking about providing liquidity, you can profit by doing that?

@Quroe yeah what I mean by that is buying yes from people who want to buy no, and buying no from those who want to buy yes at a higher price later

your trades cancel so you get your profits back quick, which can then be used elsewhere, rather than waiting til resolution

the most profitable way to do it is quickly correct “spikes” from big traders, and hope a spike in the other direction appears later. it may not - this is a risk (but eg in this market, you can see many spikes in each direction i corrected which was very profitable https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-yoon-suk-yeol-still-be-korean)

@summer_of_bliss Oh! I call that "boxing" a position, but I may be misusing the term.

@Quroe ah yeah probably many terms for it - just “buy low sell high” really

You enjoy your rank at @Ziddletwix ’s pleasure

@snazzlePop

@summer_of_bliss

This site is sorta kinda P2W, tbh. And the top players are disproportionately also the moderators. 🙄

lol