He ran what appears to be an unsuccessful coup. Or a moment of madness?
Will he still be president on Jan 6th 2025 Korean Time -- resolves midnight Korean time.
YES if he is still in office. NO if he is impeached, removed or resigns.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market resolves YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds official power, even if impeached
Resolution is based on whether he maintains actual power/office, not impeachment status
Update 2024-14-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Yoon to be considered out of office, his removal must be confirmed by Constitutional Court, unless he resigns or his party forces him out
Resolution will not occur before Monday unless there is a clear event like resignation
1,000
3.00Resolved YES.
Super bizarre episode. He's been impeached and awaiting confirmation by the court. But that hasn't happened so he's still the President. Although not acting President. Basically suspended, as if he was an NBA player.
What a mess. Remind me not to make markets about Korean politics again.
[Breaking] Investigative body moves in to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol
Some 50 officials of the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials and police combined entered President Yoon Suk Yeol's official residence at around 8:03 a.m. Friday to arrest him on suspicion of insurrection.
Investigators arrive at South Korean president’s residence to carry out arrest warrant
Updated 6:55 PM EST, Thu January 2, 2025
(8:55 AM KST, Fri January 3, 2025)
Not that we are going by their ruling -- but this is from Polymarket.
For Yoon to be out.... it needs to be confirmed by Constitutional Court -- unless he resigns, his party forces him out, etc. Again -- this is according to Polymarket -- adding it as context.
I have no position in this market (sold initial position days ago) and looking to make a fair ruling.
Will wait until Monday at the earliest (unless something obvious like he resigns).
@Moscow25 it seems there are 4 criteria for no longer being president, of which he currently meets 2:
He still holds the title
He is suspended from the role and thus no longer wields the power
He has been voted to be impeached by parliament
He has not had his impeachment confirmed by the court yet
If this continues to be the case by the resolution date, would you consider resolving to 50% as a compromise?
@TheAllMemeingEye this market is very much not an outlier in thinking yoon currently fits the definition of ‘president’
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-president-of-56A2nQsUOy
https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2024
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresleavesk/south-korean-president-leaving
We used to have clear resolutions in this country...
From the BBC article
The constitutional court now has 180 days to rule on whether Yoon's impeachment should be upheld or whether he can return to office. If it rules in favour of impeachment, an election for the next president must be called within 60 days.
Let's wait until Monday to see as more info comes out. We need a lot more confirmation and Korean sources to resolve something like this.
@Moscow25 There may not be any amount of confirmation or Korean sources that will help here. I think our current understanding of the situation is pretty clear, it's just that the resolution criteria were ambiguous/conflicting. So you're probably going to need to decide whether e.g. you care more about who is addressed by the title of "President" or who is able to wield the official powers of the presidency (or come up with some third secret thing which removes the ambiguity in the question). The sooner you make that basic decision, the better this market will function, and I don't there's any benefit to waiting till Monday for more info.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c140xjv31lxo
Yoon has been suspended while Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has taken over as acting president.
I'm assuming this counts as a no resolution as long as he doesn't get reinstated? @Moscow25 can you confirm if this would count?
YES as long as he holds on to official power
@TheAllMemeingEye This is yet another title-body conflict, like the Mariah Carey fiasco. Is he still President? Yes. Is he still in office? I guess it depends what "in office" means, but he's not the acting president. Has he been impeached, removed, or resigned? Yes. Does he hold official power? Mostly no. Does he hold actual power? Mostly no.
“YES if he is still in office. NO if he is impeached, removed or resigns.”
How does this resolve if he is impeached but is still in office?
@summer_of_bliss if he's in office that is a YES
I'll be honest I don't know the finer points of Korean politics
YES as long as he holds on to official power
