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@traders Polymarket has resolved yes, so this market does too. Check out @xjp ’s market with with different criteria to Polymarket:

10 on NO, just due to odds polymarket ends up making a PR decision to do something other then resolve yes.

@traders Please check out this related market: /realDonaldTrump/tyler-robinson-sentence

Hopefully Manifold can agree that a man dating a trans woman doesn’t make them (non-cis or) non-straight … and Polymarket’s clarification that ‘being in a relationship with a transgendered individual’ makes someone ‘queer’ invalidated that market as any source of truth… if it were up to me I would poll @ traders about unbinding the resolutions.

All that being said I just came across the charges from the Utah County Attorney’s Office and I couldn’t not share this section about the roommate with this market. The police sidestep the roommate’s gender identity and refer to them as a ‘biological male’ … anyway, I realize I am likely throwing my mana away sharing all this but here’s their text message exchange:

@yeeta I agree that dating a transwoman doesnt necessarily make you "non-straight", but the friend in the Klippenstein article says he is bi

Edit: forgot I only posted it on the other market:

https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/exclusive-leaked-messages-from-charlie

@yeeta

… if it were up to me I would poll @ traders about unbinding the resolutions

If it were up to me, I would absolutely not reverse the original question (both the title and description, which unambiguously refer to polymarket, not the creator’s own judgment). And it is ~unlikely that would be allowed on the site anyways (IMO, not an official answer)—people bet on one question, creators have some leeway to clarify things but they do not have unlimited leeway to turn the question into something else. What polymarket thinks and what someone else thinks are two very different questions, and the former is interesting in its own right.

If one wants to trade on the latter question, there are markets for doing so (albeit, for now their probabilities are converging after the latest news, while before they were very different)

@Ziddletwix I didn’t realize the question was always just “what does Polymarket think” .. I’ll check the history next time. Agree it shouldn’t be changed.

@Xizted very interesting.. I’m starting to be convinced .. ultimately I’d like to hear from the individual when it comes to determining their own sexuality but I realize we may never get that certainty

for a bit more detail, in practice, creators do have leeway to revise things, so if e.g., a market starts out copied from Polymarket to save time writing criteria, & then polymarket issues a dumb clarification, the creator could probably say "nah I'm not gonna follow that, I'll stick with what I think the true spirit of the question is", that's generally fine. in this case, the creator has already explicitly clarified that this is about predicting the polymarket resolution, people created alternative markets to trade on which ignore the clarification, there are many comments about whether the clarification makes sense (but under the assumption that it binds this market), etc etc. so this is a case where the creator doesn't really have the leeway imo to revise the criteria at this point, even if there are cases where that's fine

@yeeta Yeah, I think more evidence would be appreciated, but it is a pretty clear signal he might be queer.

for folks who might be reading this thread in the future .. there seem to be a ton of people who think these text messages were fabricated

User @brod is not speaking on behalf of the Tyler Robinson.

A cis man dating a trans woman is considered straight. In order to be considered bi or gay etc Tyler would need to be attracted to non-female people or not consider themself a cis man.

@yeeta this resolves according to polymarket & polymarket has already essentially ruled otherwise. you can agree or disagree with their choice but i hope people understand what they are betting on (and they will not be able to convince brad with the validity of their arguments)

@Ziddletwix appreciate the clarification.. and understand this market is just asking if Polymarket will resolve Yes.

It’s funny that Polymarket is asking if Tyler is queer which is an even further reach … queer being a quality that can only be self-defined … and we all would have heard if they had done so (they haven’t)

@Ziddletwix These damn "resolves according to Polymarket" questions...

@yeeta thanks @Ziddletwix - fwiw I agree polymarket's clarification is dumb and bigoted. made this market before that clarification came out (bc I couldn't believe the price even before). but don't want to rugpull anyone betting by changing this market's criteria after that

sometimes I feel like people don't take this fake money prediction market seriously

@jessald He sacrificed his mana for the poor

RIP Evan (2)

@jessald Evan you were so real for this

Same question but not assuming that dating trans women is gay:

https://manifold.markets/cvja/tyler-robinson-noncisnonstraight-ac

How on Earth is this 88%?

@JaundicedBaboon Yeah, should be higher

Why do people keep filling my outrageous limits, playmaker is at 96

@JeromeHPowell polymarket*

Anyone want to fill me at 88

@JeromeHPowell