In the spirit of Charlie, there's nothing straight about a woman's penis. 😂

@MarySmith Hard to say that without intimate knowledge of the penis, no?

https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/exclusive-leaked-messages-from-charlie

Ken Klippenstein released an article with some leaked screenshots and an interview with an anonymous friend of Robinson who refers to him as bisexual

@xjp is this account sufficient, or what more around him being bi would be needed to resolve yes?

@bagofsprite I'm not sure. I'm going to wait for as much evidence as possible to come out and then weigh each piece against each other.

Manifold needs to come with an official dictionary of accepted definitions

https://manifold.markets/post/frequent-market-terms-recommended-d?r=QmF5ZXNpYW4

started it the other day, any recommended additions?

He has this badge on his steam profile: https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198159427286/inventory/#753_6_17861634850

It strongly implies he bought and played the game Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

He also has a furraffinity account and is in a romantic relationship with his transgender furry roommate. There's also links on steamhistory (althought the site is currently down) where he flirts with other (apparently) male furries (point here being that it doesn't seem like an exclusive relationship).

This dude isn't even close to straight

Suppose the partner was preparing to transition but had not begun the process and as such still retained many male characteristics. Would this constitute evidence that Robinson was attracted to men (i.e. would you resolve Yes in that case)?

@jessald We probably won't get many details about the partner's transition timeline or characteristics, and we probably should respect their privacy. Speculating about that alone won't resolve YES.

@xjp But if we did get those details, how would it resolve? In other words, regardless of what's true in real life regarding the shooter or broader ideological/cultural disputes, does a relationship with an insufficiently transitioned individual constitute evidence of same sex attraction (whether bi or gay)?

@DavidHiggs I'm not going to count that, to avoid arguments or speculation about what counts as "sufficiently" transitioned. However if it's explicitly revealed that Tyler dated this person before they transitioned altogether, i.e. he started out dating someone he thought was a man, I will count that as gay.

@xjp it’s kind of rich to say we should respect their privacy after creating this market.

@MachiNi No it's not. This market is about Tyler who chose to make himself a public figure. That's a world apart from digging into the physical characteristics of his partner who is innocent.

@xjp good luck establishing his sexual proclivities (even if you didn’t care about his privacy) without getting your nose into the private lives and characteristics of his partners.

@MachiNi another way of phrasing this (imo): this market heavily incentivizes digging into any (potential) partners’ private lives, physical characteristics, etc.

Whether any individual participant or the market creator actually follows said incentive is a distinct question.

@xjp Ok, so... I think realistically the only easy way to resolve this market would be through Tyler's self identification? So if he does not self identify either way that means you might resolve this N/A or may be forced to speculate about the nature of his partner's gender and sexuality?

Assuming the latter is fair game, I think there are a few obvious questions:

What if the partner was an "egg" at the time the relationship was initiated? To quote Urban Dictionary:

Trans slang for a person who hasn't realized they're trans yet. Usually they show telltale behavior of a trans person despite not knowing, like 'ironically' crossdressing or writing shitty fanfiction about trans people. The word comes from the idea that they haven't "cracked out of their shell", like an egg.

What if the partner was a "femboy"? Again, from Urban Dictionary:

A femboy is a person, typically under the age of 30 years, who is biologically male. However, this person will often present himself in a very feminine manner. This behavior may be exhibited part of the time, or all of the time.

Femboys are not to be confused with ladyboys, who are a type of Asian male to female transsexual.

Femboys are also different from cross-dressers. Despite being feminine, femboys do not necessarily wear clothing designed for females, but this is very common.

The fact that one is a femboy says nothing about one's sexuality. Femboys may be straight, gay, bisexual, pansexual, asexual, or of any other sexuality.

It is also not necessarily indicative of one's gender identity. A femboy may still identify as male, or he may wish to be identified as female. However, it is common for femboys to be bigender.

And I guess a third angle would be what if the partner was an erotic-type furry? Does sexual attraction to anthropomorphic animals count as straight to you?

@jessald I clarified above that dating an egg is gay, except maybe in some spiritual sense not relevant to this market. Dating a femboy is also gay. Dating a furry is not in and of itself gay.

“Even putting ideology side, we know this to be scientifically false because men who date trans women respond mainly to female not male stimuli, and are additionally attracted to cis women not cis men.” Is there any evidence to this? This seems like it would be extremely dependent on the individual

@Jessef0226 Yes, there are lots of studies on this. And it doesn't really depend, the arousal patterns of men who date trans women are quite consistent with other straight men, not with gay or bisexual men. They measure physiological responses using plethysmography (measuring genital arousal) and pupillometry (eye response to stimuli) so you know it's not a matter of being in denial or in the closet either.

I guess we need an "is Andrew Tate gay?" market that also resolves according to how the other market resolves:
https://x.com/basic_chanel/status/1633034699575644160