Tyler Robinson non-cis/non-straight? (actually)

Question

The other market (https://manifold.markets/brod/tyler-robinson-noncisnonstraight) depends on the Polymarket criteria's false and transphobic assumption that men who date trans women are gay. Even putting ideology side, we know this to be scientifically false because men who date trans women respond mainly to female not male stimuli, and are additionally attracted to cis women not cis men.

This market will resolves YES on any confirmed evidence within the next 2 months that Tyler Robinson, the Charlie Kirk shooter, is actually non-cis and/or non-straight, such as evidence that he experienced gender dysphoria (whether or not he transitioned), or evidence that he was attracted to men, or evidence that he identified as LGBT.

I will not trade on this market. I also don't have any emotional investment in either outcome.

Update 2025-09-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Regarding evidence via the reported partner:

Will not count relationships with an "insufficiently transitioned" partner or speculation about their characteristics as evidence of attraction to men.

Will count as YES only if it's explicitly revealed that Tyler began dating the partner before they transitioned altogether—i.e., he believed they were a man at the time.

Update 2025-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Dating an "egg" (hadn't realized they were trans; perceived as male at the time) counts as attraction to men ⇒ can resolve YES if confirmed.

Dating a femboy counts as attraction to men ⇒ can resolve YES if confirmed.

Being a furry or dating one is not, by itself, evidence of non-straightness ⇒ not sufficient for YES.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Nov 14, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.