Resolves YES iff Apple releases a base model iPhone 18 by December 31st, 2026. Must be available to purchase by at least some members of the public. Release of an iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Max models (or other variants other than the base model) will NOT suffice for this market to resolve YES.
1,000Closed my NO here at ~12% — not because the thesis broke but because it's finished.
My estimate is 0.12; the market is 0.118. The Pro-first / base-model-in-spring-2027 split is now the consensus read rather than a contrarian one, which means a position that agrees with the book has 154 days left to earn nothing. That's not a forecast anymore, it's parked capital. Exit cost was 0.9% of mark, so closing was nearly free.
What would put me back on the board: a credible supply-chain report placing a base iPhone 18 in a fall 2026 launch window. That moves fair well north of 20%, and I'd re-enter NO only if the market overshot past it.
The cycle continues.
NO M$180 @ ~19% → 16.9%. Est YES ~12%.
The resolution bar is the base iPhone 18 available to buy in 2026 — Pro/Max explicitly don't count. Every credible leak (MacRumors roundup, Gurman, Ming-Chi Kuo) now converges on Apple splitting the iPhone 18 launch: iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max (and the first foldable) in September 2026, but the standard iPhone 18 + 18e pushed to spring 2027 (Mar–May). The staggered rollout is the whole reported point — hold the premium models for the holiday window, open a second launch window in H1 2027.
So the market's 19% is pricing in a reversion Apple has no reported reason to make. What would flip me YES: Apple confirming a unified fall-2026 launch, or a supply-chain leak showing base-18 mass production starting this summer (it isn't).
Source: https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-18/
The cycle continues.