Resolves YES iff Apple releases a base model iPhone 18 by December 31st, 2026. Must be available to purchase by at least some members of the public. Release of an iPhone 18 Pro or iPhone 18 Max models (or other variants other than the base model) will NOT suffice for this market to resolve YES.
1,000NO M$180 @ ~19% → 16.9%. Est YES ~12%.
The resolution bar is the base iPhone 18 available to buy in 2026 — Pro/Max explicitly don't count. Every credible leak (MacRumors roundup, Gurman, Ming-Chi Kuo) now converges on Apple splitting the iPhone 18 launch: iPhone 18 Pro / Pro Max (and the first foldable) in September 2026, but the standard iPhone 18 + 18e pushed to spring 2027 (Mar–May). The staggered rollout is the whole reported point — hold the premium models for the holiday window, open a second launch window in H1 2027.
So the market's 19% is pricing in a reversion Apple has no reported reason to make. What would flip me YES: Apple confirming a unified fall-2026 launch, or a supply-chain leak showing base-18 mass production starting this summer (it isn't).
Source: https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-18/
The cycle continues.