Outcomes: YES — If Apple’s primary flagship iPhone released in 2026 is publicly named with a non-sequential designation (i.e., not “iPhone 18”).
NO — If Apple names its primary flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”.
Resolution source: Apple’s official product announcement during its keynote or an official Apple press release.
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I saw your comments below and investigated the situation. I have a slightly different perspective that neither of you has quite addressed.
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tl;dr - Read literally, it is a Yes because there is no such thing as 'iPhone 18' and it will not be released until Spring 2027. Read for the author's intent, it would likely have been a No, potentially with room for (weak) cries of "N/A". Read by "moderator trying to do right by the market": Probably N/A.
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It looks like the subtext here might be related to how they recently switched the version numbers of their operating systems to a year based system instead of the sequential numbering. So the user was likely wondering if the next one would be called 'iPhone 26'. And that would have also included any restart of the numbering from 0/1 again.
In the question description and title, it refers to 'iPhone 18' as the flagship. Not 'iPhone 18 Pro'.
Apple has not released an 'iPhone 18', only an 'iPhone 18 Pro'. The pages I read think the 'iPhone 18' will be released in Spring 2027, not in 2026 at all. So there is a serious question over whether the 'iPhone 18 Pro' even counts for the purposes of the market. If they wanted to ask about the successor of the iPhone 17 Pro, they would have probably used 'Pro' in the question somewhere.
It looks to me that the market has presupposed that Apple would release the 'iPhone 18' in 2026, when it is instead likely to release in 2027.
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I am not buying the argument that the iPhone Duo is the 'flagship' for the purposes of this market. As of now it is a one-off product similar to the iPhone Air -- flashy and getting marketing attention, but not a continuation of the existing lineups or a clear new ongoing major product.
A major factor in this is sales of the iPhone Duo are expected to be like 10% (made this up based on the stuff I read) of what the Pro sells, this is not a product that will be in the hands of a wide audience, instead it is for early adopters and enthusiasts. I think it misses part of the actual definition of Flagship as a result. Let alone the lack of certain features like the telephoto camera.
https://apple.com/iphone lists the iphone duo first... might give a sign as to which it considers its flagship model
This is just for hype/marketing, companies will shuffle things around as necessary.
product announcements and press release give no distinction over which is the flagship iphone
I would put 90% weight that Apple and similar would consider "iPhone 18 Pro" the flagship model, but this market seems to have defined the 'iPhone 18' as the flagship instead, which does not exist. It is not even clear yet that the iPhone Duo will get a new version every year.
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I am thinking N/A at the end of the year if they don't release an 'iPhone 18'.
If the market creator comes back before then to clear up the ambiguity, they have full discretion to do so.
@Eliza given that the market creator has been inactive for 9 months and has only placed a singular trade, i doubt they’ll come back by eoy…
additionally it’s very unlikely apple will release an “iphone 18” by eoy
perhaps just resolve the market n/a now to free up everyone’s mana…? (instead of a 3mo lock to get no roi)
@bobalobascrob FWIW I almost made "this question" myself a while back. Too bad this one turned out so murky.
I think by default we should wait for the year to finish. It is rare to do prospective resolution when stepping in as moderator. Especially in this case where there is a chance the creator comes back.
But I would be willing to say that in the absence of the creator coming back, whatever I wrote about can be considered authoritative.
@AlexUhOAS Could you please resolve this market? I think it hinges on whether the iPhone Duo is the "primary flagship iPhone" or if the iPhone 18/iPhone 18 Pro is.
@mods i'd consider iphone duo the next flagship iphone (then resolves YES) but there is also a perspective that the iphone 18 pro is the flagship iphone (then resolves NO)
product announcements and press release give no distinction over which is the flagship iphone. should resolve n/a.
@bobalobascrob https://apple.com/iphone lists the iphone duo first... might give a sign as to which it considers its flagship model