This question resolves Yes if I cannot access https://manifold.markets in Mainland China without a VPN for at least 2 consecutive weeks (14 days), because it's blocked by the Great Firewall.
Question resolves No if I can otherwise access the website above in China without a VPN, but can't do actions on it (Current situation). Missing functionality will not count, it has to be a block on the https://manifold.markets url in particular.
Question resolves No if I cannot access https://manifold.markets in China but it's nothing to do with the Great Firewall.
China in this question refers to only Mainland China, not Taiwan, Hong Kong or Macau.
Manifold was blocked in China from October 1st (National Day) to October 7th. As of October 13th, it is unblocked, but I'm not sure whether they'll block it again.
I will buy 50M of Yes as insurance, then not trade again.
*Edit: Preliminary set resolution criteria to whether Manifold will be blocked for at least 2 consecutive weeks. Discuss about this change in the comments.
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@Sss19971997 Hmm... seems so, I tried it myself and Manifold's not responding. It's not throwing up the usual errors about connection being reset or sth, but it isn't loading.
@bohaska After some more thinking, I think that I should set the question to resolve to whether Manifold is blocked on December 31st, 2023, and not the times in between. Any objections?
@jskf That's a fair point. I'll think about it, and check later on whether this ban seems to be temporary or permanent.
@bohaska China blocks tons of sites around holidays or big political meetings. It usually goes back to normal a week or so later.
@bohaska That change would really change the market characteristics since the claim could no longer resolve early. What about something like it being blocked for at least 2 or 3 weeks continuously before end, so it can still resolve early, but also so that short term or temporary events don't trigger it accidentally? I think you'd get more traders that way.
It's National Day in China.
Which brings me a very worrying report
Loading Manifold without a VPN gives me an error message the exact same as the error messages from loading a website blocked by the GFW
Now, given that I can send a comment here about it, I can still access it with a VPN, but it doesn't work without it.
@bohaska It's blocked again. October 3rd, also afternoon.
This will count as a continuous 3-day block.
@bohaska It was blocked again???
October 3rd, night (forgot to record), and october 4th, morning
@bohaska Unblocked again. Argh.
For those folks managing the GFW, please keep this unblocked.
October 4th, morning.
@bohaska heh yeah it's always like this. Part of it is psychological to get people to just give up. There's also dns query result manipulation in some cases.
@bohaska Still blocked as of October 7th
This is the most disappointing mana I have ever earned
@bohaska It's unblocked? October 8th
If it stays this way tomorrow, this will not count as a long enough block.
@bohaska October 9th, not blocked.
Looks like it was only temporary!
Will wait until tomorrow for confirmation.