Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025?
Basic
23
2.7k
2026
73%
chance

Will resolve YES if any Manifold team member confirms that a DDoS attack occurred, a hacker verifiably announced that a DDoS happened, or other unenumerated scenarios that unambiguously confirmed.

Will resolve NO if otherwise.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ400 YES

https://www.comparitech.com/blog/information-security/ddos-statistics-facts/

Nearly 70 percent of surveyed organizations experience 20-50 DDoS attacks per month.

Even w/o considering sampling bias, the article also states that most DDoS attempts don’t succeed, which per the resolution criteria would be very unlikely to qualify (since they probably won’t acknowledge it)

the chance of sampling bias and the chance that they don't acknowledge it are definitely relevant. If they weren't relevant I would have put a lot more than Ṁ400 on this market, but I think you are overstating their relevance. My main reason for thinking so would be that while I do agree that manifold wouldn't normally acknowledge a failed DDoS attempt, I think if someone asked manifold would probably tell the truth, and I think the odds someone asking because of this market will be pretty high if it gets close to the resolution date. I also think the fact a manifold employee bet on YES also makes it more likely that we will hear if it happens even if no one asks.