Will resolve YES if any Manifold team member confirms that a DDoS attack occurred, a hacker verifiably announced that a DDoS happened, or other unenumerated scenarios that unambiguously confirmed.
Will resolve NO if otherwise.
https://www.comparitech.com/blog/information-security/ddos-statistics-facts/
Nearly 70 percent of surveyed organizations experience 20-50 DDoS attacks per month.
the chance of sampling bias and the chance that they don't acknowledge it are definitely relevant. If they weren't relevant I would have put a lot more than Ṁ400 on this market, but I think you are overstating their relevance. My main reason for thinking so would be that while I do agree that manifold wouldn't normally acknowledge a failed DDoS attempt, I think if someone asked manifold would probably tell the truth, and I think the odds someone asking because of this market will be pretty high if it gets close to the resolution date. I also think the fact a manifold employee bet on YES also makes it more likely that we will hear if it happens even if no one asks.