Only Arabic numerals as defined in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arabic_numerals count as valid options.
Resolves to the amount of mana in the pool of this market as seen in market info, or to the closest number, as measured by the difference between the pool and the option. If there are several options all equally close to the same number, then this market will resolve equally to these options.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,109 | |
| 2 | Ṁ836 | |
| 3 | Ṁ104 | |
| 4 | Ṁ34 | |
| 5 | Ṁ33 |
This was an interesting experiment! And IMO a compelling argument that more updates are still needed for free-response markets to disincentivize adding bad options and selling them. One easy change that I think the staff should consider is making it impossible to buy NO/sell YES in an option that you added in the last 24 hours, if doing so would put the new option lower than the % it split off at.
@Joshua Why “tfw”? You made the most mana! 😉 I don’t agree that’s the correct change, because what if you in earnest think there ought to be another option with a probability that’s less/more than half of “Other”?
Yes but I could have made more if I was paying attention 😅
Notably, I think that this question was different from most large free response questions because it being non-predictive meant there was far less house-provided liquidity. In a big non-non-predictive market like /Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year , options split off at far less than half the percent of "Other" because most of the house liquidity in Other stays in Other.
However, this is not /entirely/ the case and in some circumstances you can add an option to a large market and actually make more than 25 mana by immediately selling it. I think this is especially undesirable and would be disincentivized with the change I propose.
in some circumstances you can add an option to a large market and actually make more than 25 mana by immediately selling it
this is the kind of thing i was trying to figure out while i was clicking a lot of buttons yesterday in this market (which i was unsuccessful at). what are some actual circumstances where that's possible?
also do you know if there's documentation somewhere for the formulas used to determine free response probabilities/payouts, or do i have to dig into the github repo for that?
@firstuserhere If you come up with new, relevant questions, you might need to make a new bounty 😂
I can still think of a few additional questions participants in this market might have that could be very relevant.
@Eliza Well, I'm familiar with most of the usual subsidy questions, just this one was not clear to me, but yes, I understand how other people might have more questions. Added in more bounty for those.
Why should I add 1999 when someone else will then immediately add 1998?
@Joshua my big problem is I'm going to 100% lose this market in the end. I'll be asleep when it closes
@Stralor What would you guys think if I made a derivative of this market with same rules, but random closing time for the last 24 hours?
@oh well there are plenty of viable options here that aren't Other, and while Other is my biggest exposure it's not where my biggest potential is for wins. So I'm pretty inclined to either keep baiting and selling or get it to resolve to a pick of my choosing.