How many Apollo moonwalkers will be alive when the next moonwalker returns to Earth?
Basic
13
403
2031
5%
4
6%
3
22%
2
39%
1
28%
0

There are four living moonwalkers as of market creation Buzz Aldrin, David Scott, Charles Duke, Harrison Schmitt.

This market resolves YES based on the number of listed names that are alive when a new person who has walked on the moon returns to Earth alive. All other values resolve NO.

  • If all four are alive when a new moonwalker returns to Earth then this market resolves YES (4). Others resolve NO.

  • If exactly three are alive when a new moonwalker returns to Earth then this market resolves YES (3). Others resolve NO.

  • ...

  • If all four die before a new moonwalker returns to Earth then this market resolves YES (0). Others resolve NO.

The market close date will adjust as necessary and resolve early once a YES criteria has been met.

The events for resolution (deaths of Apollo astronauts, reports of moonwalking, reports of return to Earth) will be based on the preponderance of news evidence.

Fine print:

The moonwalker must return to Earth alive after the moonwalking event, but other crew members need not. The moonwalker should exit the spacecraft on Earth and be credibly alive to trigger a resolution.

Insufficient to resolve:

  • Humans landing on the moon, but not exiting the spacecraft do not count as walking on the moon.

  • Humans solely riding on a moon rover or other vehicle do not count.

  • Robots walking on the moon do not count.

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three are alive ... resolves YES (4).

Assuming this is a typo?

@robm Yes. Thanks for catching it.

Yeah a YES on that market is close to a NO (0) on this market. And a NO on that market is close to YES (0).

Just be careful because they could diverge if the relevant mission fails to return the moonwalker back to Earth for any reason.

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