I am predicting YES at 70% here! My prediction is based off of the Metaculus community prediction of the date of the next moon landing, which currently estimates another moon landing happening around 2028. I consider the Metaculus community to be more accurate than Manifold.

Additionally, it's possible actuarial tables will not be as accurate as we want them to be here. These are astronauts we're dealing with, not your average Americans. I assume the moonwalkers will have access to advanced healthcare in their old age.

@BrendanFinan fwiw Manifold predictions currently also estimate the next moon landing around 2028. I've collected all different markets in the description of this market:

/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again

Current actuarial life table gives a median time to no moonwalkers of 2030

I am assuming this is referring to the living four Apollo astronauts, correct? Otherwise the question technically could resolve to YES if all the remaining Apollo astronauts die before the next crewed mission, but if that crewed mission has two astronauts who EVA. The second astronaut would "set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living" (assuming no foul play lol).
If so, perhaps a title like this would be better?
"Will the next human to set foot on the moon do so whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?"

@jks

The description says it resovles NO as soon as the current moonwalkers die, if that happens first.

@Joshua Ha! I would do better to read the description first. Thank you.